Beware of this Betting Trend for NFL Teams Coming off a Bye

It's been a strange season for NFL bettors in 2021.

Underdogs have gone 85-62-1 against the spread (ATS), road teams are 86-61-1 ATS, and unders have gone 83-66-2 ATS.

So when it comes to how teams perform following a bye week this season, it somehow makes sense that the well-rested and recovered teams have so far stunk for bettors.

Heading into Week 11, NFL teams coming off their bye week are covering the spread at a 45% clip. They're 5-10-1 ATS, and only 7-8 straight up this season.

In Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions all returned from a Week 9 bye. The Bucs and Seahawks lost by double-digits to the Football Team and Packers respectively, and while the Lions didn't lose in their 16-16 tie to the Pittsburgh Steelers, they looked entirely out of sorts on offense. Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Detroit scored a total of 35 points, prompting another trend worth checking out.

How do Over/Unders and Totals Do After a Bye Week?

Turns out that overs have done just as poorly as teams' records against the spread following a bye week.

Only five teams this season have hit the over in their first game following a bye week, with the other 11 going under in their matchups.

Here are the four teams returning from a bye in Week 11, along with the projected totals in their matchups.

Week 10 Bye Week Teams: Matchups for Week 11

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders | TOTAL: 49.5
Chicago Bears (+5) vs. Baltimore Ravens | TOTAL: 45
Houston Texans (+10) at Cleveland Browns | TOTAL: 43.5
New York Giants (+10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TOTAL: 50.5

So far, sharp money has actually been in Chicago's favor at home against the Ravens this week, moving the original line of Baltimore -6.5 down to -5. Furthermore, early money during the week has also moved the Texans from +10.5 down to +10 when they travel to Cleveland on Sunday.

With three major underdogs, as well as one game hovering around a pick 'em, we'll see whether this unusual betting trend continues in to Week 12, giving bettors an even clearer picture of how to evaluate bye week teams moving forward.