Beware This NFL Betting Trap Amidst Week 1 Line Movement
As we prepare for Week 1 of the NFL season, line movements have begun to shift as we move towards the first Sunday of the season.
One thing you should definitely keep in mind before placing your bets, that just because the line is moving in one direction, it doesn't mean that it's the right side to bet.
In fact, according to Bet Labs, teams whose have had the line move towards them during Week 1, have only covered the spread 39% of times.
In the past 10 years, teams that become bigger favorites in Week 1 have gone 32-51-2 (39%) ATS per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) September 7, 2022
Week 1 matches:
BUF +1 to -2.5 at LAR
MIA -3 to -3.5 vs. NE
CAR +4.5 to -2 vs. CLE
NO -4 to -5.5 at ATL
BAL -4.5 to -7 at NYJ
KC -3 to -3.5 at AZ
DEN -4.5 to -6.5 at SEA
NFL Week 1 Line Movement
There are seven teams that have seen line movements move in their favor.
One of the most significant movements, are the Baltimore Ravens who went from 4.5-point favorites to 7-point favorites. Not only is 3.5-points a significant difference, but it crosses a key football betting number of seven.
With the majority of scoring plays in football being three points (field goal) or seven points (touchdown + extra point), it's a big deal when a better line moves across a key number.
Sure, the Ravens are the better team, but are they worth of being favorites of over a touchdown? I'm not so sure.
And, if past results are any indication, you should also proceed with caution. The Ravens certainly fall under the category teams who have become bigger favorites. Those teams have only covered the spread 39% of the time over the past decade.
Something to consider before you hit "submit" on the Ravens -7 this weekend.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.