Big 12 College Football Preview, Best Bets: Buy Kansas State, Fade Baylor in 2022

The Big 12 is one of the most intriguing conferences in College Football with all the changes at the top. Can we profit off of it?

The defending champion Baylor Bears have a ton of changes across the roster, can they repeat as champions or are they a regression candidate? I also assess Kansas State's prospects as a dark horse Big 12 Championship contender with Nebraska's Adrian Martinez in the Little Apple.

Odds courtesy of consensus sportsbooks

You can find all of Reed's College Football Plays on his Betstamp HERE!

Kansas State OVER 6.5 Wins (-145)

I grabbed this number at FanDuel at -130, and it has been taking steady money to the over since win totals had been released.

The story for K-State, who has won eight games in two of past three seasons, is the transfer of Adrian Martinez. The Nebraska import is maddening at times with turnovers (14 last year) but the skill set is impressive. He combined for over 10,000 all purpose yards in four years with the Cornhuskers.

He is joined in the backfield with one of the most electric rushers in the sport, Deuce Vaughn, who had 1,872 all purpose yards and 22 touchdowns in 2021. Factor in some explosive receivers and this has the looks of the best offense Kleinman has had since arrive in Manhattan.

The defense was hit-or-miss at times, struggling to stop big plays, but up front they have disruptive players in Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who made 1st team All-Big 12 last season. Overall, expect another sturdy unit that allowed only 21 points per game in 2021.

Martinez gives this team a higher ceiling but a lower floor with his erratic play at times, but Kleinman has been able to maximize every edge, such as a strong special teams unit, making this team reliable.

The Wildcats will be big favorites in all three non conference games and draw winnable games at home against Texas Tech and Kansas. Can they take one of four road games against Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and West Virginia (the most likely)? If they can you are already at six wins and that's expecting a poor outcome in coin flip matchups. They will be home for Oklahoma State and Texas as well.

There is a ton of upside for the Wildcats after an 8-5 season, I think it's reasonable to expect seven wins as the floor. Hopefully the change of scenery will help Martinez win some close games (he was 4-17 in games decided by one score at Nebraska).

PICK: Kansas State OVER 6.5 Wins (-145)

Baylor UNDER 7.5 Wins (+120)

Baylor was a great story in 2021, improving from 2-7 to 12-2 under second year head coach Dave Aranda, who built one of the best defenses in the country.

Now they go from the hunter to the hunted and I believe the expectation is too high for the losses on the roster. The team has the sixth lowest returning production in the country, per ESPN's Bill Connelly, and benefitted from some help in close games, going 4-1 in one score affairs.

The team is in capable hands at quarterback with Blake Shapen taking over for Gerry Bohannon, but the team loses pretty much all of their proven threats at the skill positions. The Bears lost their top two running backs that combined for over 2,500 yards on the ground as well as their top three receivers.

Aranda will always coach a stout defense, and the line brings back three key starters, but they do lose four of their top five tacklers.

The schedule is tricky with a non conference game at BYU and a road game at Oklahoma and Texas (to end the year) in Big 12 play. Oklahoma State gets a bye before they go to Waco and the Bears have a potential lookahead spot at Texas Tech before the aforementioned trip to Norman.

I'm usually looking to play against teams that got some breaks last season like Baylor did -- think about their goal line stand against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Overall, the team will be big favorites in three games, but the remaining nine all range from coin flips to likely losses.

After going 4-1 in tight games can they face some bad breaks with a revamped roster and drop more than half of those games? I'll bet on it at this number.

PICK: Baylor UNDER 7.5 Wins (+120)