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Big 12 Football Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Over/Unders and Dark Horses

By Reed Wallach

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during Texas's annual spring football game at Royal
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws a pass during Texas's annual spring football game at Royal / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman /
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There is as much turnover in the Big 12 as any other conference in the country.

Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams packed their bags and left Oklahoma for USC ,while Texas brought in prized transfer Quinn Ewers from Ohio State. TCU hired Sonny Dykes to revitalize the program while Kansas State snagged Adrian Martinez from Nebraska. Who is really at the top of the conference with so many questions? Is there betting value out there for us hungry sports bettors?

Here's where the Big 12 stands heading into the season.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Big 12 Regular Season Win Totals for Every Team

  • Baylor: 7.5 (Over -150/Under +130)
  • Iowa State: 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • Kansas: 2.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
  • Kansas State: 6.5 (Over -160/Under +135)
  • Oklahoma: 9.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • Oklahoma State: 8.5 (Over +105/Under -125)
  • TCU: 6.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
  • Texas: 8 (Over -145/Under +125)
  • Texas Tech: 5.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • West Virginia: 5.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Every Team's Odds to Win Big 12 Championship

  • Baylor: +650
  • Iowa State: +1600
  • Kansas: +25000
  • Oklahoma: +180
  • Oklahoma State: +550
  • TCU: +1400
  • Texas: +280
  • Texas Tech: +4500
  • West Virginia: +3000

Big 12 Championship Favorite: Oklahoma (+180)

As is tradition at this point, the Sooners are the favorites to win the Big 12, but is it warranted? The team is transitioning from the Riley era to the Brent Venables era. Arguably the best defensive coordinator in the sport moves into his first head coaching gig where he was on the defensive staff from 1999 to 2011.

He lost star quarterback Williams, but did nab a strong offensive coordinator in Jeff Lebby, who coached at UCF and Ole Miss. Lebby was able to sway his former quarterback Dillon Gabriel from UCLA to OU to orchestrate a still talented offense that will likely play at a frenetic pace.

The team has leading receiver Marvin Mims back in the fold as well as former Tennessee transfer Eric Gray at running back. The offensive line fell off last season, below national average in offensive line yards, but was able to add some talent in the transfer portal like Tyler Guyton from TCU. Offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh has developed some of the best OL's in the sport, and while he has his work cut out for him, he is experienced.

Lebby can call a strong offense and as long as Gabriel's shoulder is healthy after a season ending injury early in 2021, but can Venables get his ideal defense right away?

The team lost star pass rushers in Isaiah Thomas, Nick Bonito and Perrion Winfrey to the NFL and will take some time on this side of the ball.

The unit struggled to stop the explosive plays despite being middle of the road at limiting offenses on a play-by-play basis (57th in success rate). They forced a high amount of turnovers and were able to get in the backfield, but can Venbales rebuild this unit on the fly?

Big 12 Championship Dark Horse: TCU (+1400)

The top of the Big 12 is vulnerable. I noted how Oklahoma is going through changes on both sides of the ball and Texas is always ripe for disappointment. Enter: TCU.

The Horned Frogs brought in SMU coach Sonny Dykes who will look to push the offense to an elite level. The options are there for sure, whether it is incumbent Max Duggan or OU transfer Chandler Morris throwing the ball to the likes of Quentin Johnson. Johnson was the leading receiver last season for an explosive offense, averaging over 19 yards per catch.

The offense wasn't the downfall of their 5-7 season and the eventual firing of long time head coach Gary Patterson, it was the defense. Joe Gillespie is in from Tulsa after creating an elite AAC unit with his 3-3-5 defense and there is some talent on board through the portal.

If Gillespie can turn the defense around after they allowed 7.2 yards per play and 75 plays of 20 or more yards, this team is going to be a dangerous out.

The schedule isn't all that great but they get Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at home in their first three conference games. They end the season at Texas and Baylor before a season finale at home against Iowa State. We'll know by the middle of October if this team is live for a special season.

There is a ton of questions heading into this season, making me more likely to eye something further down the board then play a short price on a favorite.

Big 12 Championship Pick: Oklahoma Over TCU

The Sooners should be the favorite given they have the most talent on board and while I don't see a ton of value betting them at +180, this is the most likely result.

TCU has enough upside to warrant a bet north of +1200, but the Sooners have an elite coaching staff that can put the pieces together quickly.

OU's conference schedule is manageable with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming at home and Texas on a neutral field. It also helps that they draw a road game at Iowa State after a bye week, giving them time to prepare.

Remember the Big 12 doesn't have divisions, it's the top two teams.

The Sooners are still the most likely champion even if the betting value isn't there heading into the season.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

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