Biggest Super Bowl Odds Movers After First Day of Free Agency
It was a wild first day of NFL free agency, as some of the biggest names in football changed teams and got paid.
Super Bowl odds movement matched the volatility of free agency, with some teams coming out big winners and others losers in their quest for a Super Bowl title.
Super Bowl Odds Movement
The biggest move of the day, and possibly the biggest move of the entire NFL offseason, was Kirk Cousins signing a massive deal with the Falcons to become their starting quarterback.
After years stacking offensive skill position talent through the draft, the Falcons finally might have an answer at quarterback, and their odds to win the Super Bowl reflect that.
The #Falcons are signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract that includes a $50M signing bonus, per sources.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 11, 2024
Another monster payday for Cousins, who gets $100 guaranteed — $90M in 2024 and ‘25, plus another $10M in 2026 — and a fresh start in Atlanta at age 35. pic.twitter.com/NkFNMzSjF5
Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds
The Falcons moved from +5000 to win the Super Bowl to +3000 after signing Cousins. While that's certainly a big move, the Falcons odds are the 14th best in the NFL, behind teams like the Jets, Texans and Chargers.
That is likely because Cousins is coming off a torn achilles and the Falcons have a completely new coaching staff. But it should provide perspective on how oddsmakers think this team will finish and pump the breaks on the Falcons' Super Bowl contender status for now.
Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl Odds
On the flip side, the team Cousins left in free agency, the Vikings, saw their odds drop considerably, moving from +4000 to +8000. They weren't considered contenders heading into free agency, and that won't change following the signing of quarterback Sam Darnold.
Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Odds
The Steelers signed former Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson after he was released by the Broncos and saw their odds change in a positive direction. They're now +6600 after being +8000 before free agency began.
Wilson will compete against incumbent starter and former first-round pick Kenny Pickett for the starting role in Pittsburgh. While Wilson has the pedigree of a former Super Bowl champion, he played poorly in two seasons with Denver after flaming out with the Seahawks as well.
Cleveland Browns Super Bowl Odds
The Browns signed Jordan Hicks in free agency and re-signed Za'Darius Smith and Maurice Hurst. They also added backup Jameis Winston. Despite the limited activity, their odds moved from +4000 to +3500.
New York Giants Super Bowl Odds
The Giants failed to re-sign Saquon Barkley or Xavier McKinney but they did trade for Pro Bowl pass rusher Brian Burns. Their odds didn't move and they remain +15000 to win the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl Odds
The Eagles nabbed Barkley away from New York and saw their odds move from +2000 to win it all to +1800.
Overall, it was a big day in the NFL and around Super Bowl odds. There are plenty of more big-name free agents on the market so these odds will change as the players sign. But the biggest movement is likely over based on free agency signings, though trades could change everything.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.