There were plenty of upsets in Week 3 of the 2023 season, as the Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys all lost despite being favorites of eight or more points.
That altered the Super Bowl odds quite a bit, as all three teams saw their odds take a step back with the loss.
Every week, there are winners and losers in the futures market depending upon how the previous week’s games went. For bettors, sometimes it’s important to grab a team trending up (like the Miami Dolphins) at the right number to get the best value.
Miami alone has gone from +2500 to +1000 to win the Super Bowl over the last three weeks.
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Now, let’s break down the biggest winners and losers from Week 3:
Biggest Winners in Super Bowl Odds Movement
The Dolphins have become a staple in the biggest winners in the Super Bowl odds, as they keep climbing after a 3-0 start to the season.
Miami has put up 130 points in its first three games, beating the Denver Broncos 70-20 in Week 3. The team is leading the NFL in yards per play on offense, and currently looks like the most explosive roster in the NFL.
If the Dolphins beat the Bills in Week 4, there’s a chance they move close to being the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The Detroit Lions took a step back in Week 2, losing a high-scoring game to the Seattle Seahawks, but their defense responded with a shut down performance against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3.
That moved Detroit back to +2200 to win the Super Bowl, good for eighth in the latest odds. Dan Campbell’s group has a path to a division title in the NFC North, which would likely shrink this number even further.
San Francisco 49ers
After dominating the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, the San Francisco 49ers are the sole favorites to win the Super Bowl this season.
San Fran has been great on both sides of the ball, allowing the third fewest yards per play in the NFL on defense while putting up fourth most yards per play on offense.
There’s not nearly as much value at +650, but it’s hard to look past the 49ers as a favorite in the NFC.
Biggest Losers in Super Bowl Odds Movement
The Chicago Bears may be done already in 2023.
Quarterback Justin Fields looks to have taken a step back, and Chicago allowed 41 unanswered points in Week 3 to the Kansas City Chiefs, eventually losing 41-10.
The team’s Super Bowl odds have cratered, going from +21000 to +30000 since Sunday’s loss.
Well, the Washington Commanders and Sam Howell turned into a pumpkin in Week 3 after a 2-0 start to the season.
Howell was a pick machine in Week 3, leading to the team getting trounced by the Buffalo Bills 37-3.
Sure, Buffalo is a real contender, but oddsmakers don’t think the Commanders are, dropping the team’s Super Bowl odds from +7500 to +10000.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars cannot figure things out on offense, getting thoroughly outplayed by the Houston Texans in Week 3.
That moved the Jags back to +3000 to win the Super Bowl, and at 1-2, the team is in danger of losing what seemed like a huge advantage in the division entering the season.
I wouldn't say I’m out on the Jags just yet, but they certainly aren’t worth a bet at +3000 given their current play.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.