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Bills vs. Dolphins NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 2 (Shootout in Miami?)

Here are three best bets for Thursday’s AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. 

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) is tackled by Miami Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker (55) after running with the football during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) is tackled by Miami Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker (55) after running with the football during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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The NFL is in full swing as we head into Week 2. The schedule has another great primetime game on tap for Thursday Night Football, which kicks off Week 2 when the Buffalo Bills visit Hard Rock Stadium to face AFC East-rival Miami.

Both teams rallied for wins in their respective season-openers and one will grab the upper hand with a win on Thursday night. The Miami Dolphins are short favorites (-2) in the matchup with a total of 49 points.

Here are three bets to consider for the matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Dolphins NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football 

  • Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer 
  • Miami Dolphins OVER 2.5 Total Touchdowns
  • 1st Quarter OVER 9.5 Points

Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD Scorer (+215)

Kincaid was one of the many tight end no-shows in Week 1, hauling in just 1-of-2 targets for a measly 11 yards. It’s no time to give up on the second-year tight end in Buffalo’s high-octane offense. 

Last season, Miami allowed the sixth-most touchdowns (7) and seventh-most receptions (91) to tight ends and Kincaid should have a bigger impact in this offense moving forward. In two games last season against Miami, Kincaid combined to catch 11-of-13 targets for 111 yards. In a projected shootout in Miami, Kincaid should have a bigger role and we’re banking on a bounce-back in Week 2. 

Miami Dolphins OVER 2.5 Total Touchdowns (-175)

Is anyone sold on the Buffalo defense? The Bills weakened secondary should have their hands full against Miami’s high-flying attack and Buffalo was gashed on the ground (124 yards) by Arizona in Week 1. 

This is another prop we’re getting at a discount after a slow Week 1. The Dolphins were stuck in the mud for the majority of the afternoon against Jacksonville, scoring just two touchdowns before winning it with a field goal. 

Last season, Miami scored three touchdowns in a Week 4 loss to the Bills and was held to two touchdowns in the season finale. Last season at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins averaged 3.7 touchdowns per game and went over this prop in seven of nine contests. Buffalo’s defense is going to have to prove it can slow down the league’s top-tier offenses. 

1st Quarter OVER 9.5 Points (-120)

Both of these offenses suffered from stagnant starts in Week 1 with Buffalo falling behind 17-3 to Arizona and Miami trailing by 10 points at halftime. 

Now that the feeling-out process is over, it’s time for these two offenses to cut it loose on primetime. Last season, the two matchups between these two clubs averaged 10.5 first-quarter points. 

In 2023, Buffalo ranked No. 10 in the NFL in first-quarter scoring and Miami ranked fifth. With this line heading toward 10-plus, it’s important to get your over wagers in early while you just need a touchdown and a field goal over the first 15 minutes to cash. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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