Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 13 (Buy Low on Buffalo)

Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the
Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the / Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

A pivotal battle in the AFC East will take place on the NFL Week 13 edition of Thursday Night Football.

The Buffalo Bills are desperately trying to regain the top spot in the division, while the 6-5 New England Patriots are attempting to get back into a playoff spot after falling to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Thursday night divisional matchup.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the Bills' last nine games
  • Bills are 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games against AFC East opponents
  • Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games
  • The OVER is 8-3 in the Patriots' last 11 home games
  • Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against AFC East opponents

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

It's time to buy low on the Bills after being disappointing in recent weeks. Despite beating the Browns and Bills in their last two outings, they still haven't looked like the same Bills from the start of the season, and as a result, they're no longer Super Bowl favorites.

I'm not losing faith in them. The Bills rank second in the NFL in yards per play, averaging 6.3 yards per snap, well above the Patriots who rank 17th, averaging 5.3 yards per snap.

The Patriots offense looked good last week against the Vikings, but they've struggled whenever they've played competent defenses this season. In fact, they haven't played many challenging defenses all season.

They've only played two opponents all season who rank in the top half of the NFL in opponent yards per play. To be fair, they went 3-0 in those games, beating the Jets twice and the Colts once, but their offense struggled in all three, averaging only 262.66 yards of total offense in those games.

Meanwhile, the Bills defense is starting to get healthy, and their offense remains dominant as long as Josh Allen stops throwing interceptions in the end zone. I think Buffalo will win this game by a wide margin on Thursday night.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.