Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 16

The Bills and Patriots will face each other for the second time this NFL season.
The Bills and Patriots will face each other for the second time this NFL season. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

Here we are, back again. Just three weeks after the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills played in an unusual, windy game on Monday Night Football in Week 13, the two AFC East will battle once again with the AFC East crown on the line.

The Patriots currently hold a one-game lead on the Bills at 9-5, but Buffalo can even the record with a win in Week 16 and with the tiebreaker working in their favor, they'd take over the top spot in the division. The Bills would hold a better divisional record, which would give them the edge over the Patriots.

Both teams play cupcake teams to finish out the year, so barring a major upset, this week's showdown will determine the AFC East winner.

Let's take a look at the odds for the game, courtesy of WynnBET.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total


  • Bills +1.5 (-105)
  • Patriots -1.5 (-115)


  • Bills +110
  • Patriots -130


  • 44 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 4-2 in the Bills last six games.
  • Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Patriots.
  • Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents.
  • Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC East opponents.

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

Despite the Patriots running all over the Bills in their Week 13 matchup, I'm going to back Buffalo to exact its revenge in Week 16. Now that the weather is expected to be a lot better than their previous matchup, the Patriots will need to do more than just run the football to keep up with the Bills offense.

The Bills rank 10th in yards per play (5.8) and fourth in points per play (0.429) ahead of their Week 16 game. There's no reason to believe that Josh Allen and company won't be able to find more success in this week's edition of the matchup. Especially considering they torched one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last week in the Panthers.

If Mac Jones is forced to throw the ball, he could run into trouble against a Bills defense that ranks first in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.4).

I'll back Buffalo to get the win on the road.

Pick: Bills +110