Bills vs. Saints Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 12

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have dropped two of their last three and have lost their lead in the AFC East, and need to get back on track fast with a short week to prepare for a stout New Orleans Saints defense.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is on a three game skid, quickly fading out of the NFC Playoff picture, but will look to take advantage of a sputtering Bills offense, who has struggled against even mediocre defenses in recent weeks.

Let's assess this primetime Thanksgiving matchup by first looking at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Saints Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Buffalo Bills: -4 (-115)
• New Orleans Saints: +4 (-105)

Moneyline:

• Buffalo Bills: -190
• New Orleans Saints: +170

Total:

• 47 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bills vs. Saints Betting Trends

• The Saints are 10-5 ATS as home underdogs under Sean Payton.
• The Bills are 7-5 ATS as road favorites with Josh Allen at quarterback.
• New Orleans is 6-4 to the OVER this season.
• Buffalo is 5-5 to the OVER this season.
  

Bills vs. Saints Prediction and Pick

Buffalo's market sentiment has never been lower this season, losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a big road favorite and the Colts as a touchdown chalk at home in two of the past three weeks.

Meanwhile the Saints lost a game as a big home favorite to the Falcons, lost a tight one to the Titans, and were never that close with an emerging Eagles team.

While my number projects the Bills as a bigger favorite than this, I can't back them as a road favorite in this spot. With limited time to prepare, I'm likely going to end up betting the Saints on an initial pass, but I will need to see each team's injury report. New Orleans has been without Alvin Kamara for the past two weeks, and had several injuries on the offensive line heading into the Eagles game.

My favorite play is on to be on the under. The Saints defense remains is inside the top six in EPA/Play and the Bills should have no issue with a Trevor Siemian-led New Orleans offense. Buffalo is second in EPA/Play.

The Bills have quietly been an under team lately, going under the total in three of their last four, and on a short week I can see a low scoring affair once again.

LEAN: Saints +4, UNDER 47

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