Binghamton vs. Vermont Prediction and Odds for America East Semifinal (Enjoy the Value With the Over)

The No.1 seeded Vermont Catamounts take on the No. 6 Binghamton Bearcats in the America East Conference Semifinals today at 7:00 PM EST.

Vermont has wins of 17 and 21 points over Binghamton and have won six straight. The Bearcats snapped a three-game losing streak with a victory over New Hampshire in the quarterfinal round but face a tall task against the best team in the conference.

Does value lie with the Catamounts to notch a blowout win or will the Bearcats hang around in what is likely the final game of their season?

Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to help us find out:

Binghamton vs Vermont Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Binghamton +21 (-110)
• Vermont -21 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Binghamton: +1515
• Vermont: -6000

Total:

• 135 (Over -110/Under -110)

Binghamton vs Vermont Prediction and Pick

Vermont is kind of incredible - they're a team you need to keep on your radar heading into March Madness. The Catamounts (I just learned that a catamount is a medium-sized or large wild cat) are in the 95th percentile in offensive rating and 100th in defensive. They're the best defensive rebounding team and have the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in the entire country.

With wins in 19 of their last 20, they're absolutely rolling and are more than capable of blowing out the Bearcats. Binghamton is solid defensively but poor offensively and don't give themselves the kind of easy points you need in a tournament atmosphere. The Bearcats are in the 0 percentile in free throw attempts per game and fourth percentile in offensive rebounds over their last five games, so if they aren't hitting shots against a tough Vermont defense they won't be able to score enough to keep it within the number.

But this is a huge spread, and it's worth noting that Vermont wouldn't have covered it in either of their two wins against Binghamton this season. I worry about a backdoor cover if the Catamounts jump out to a huge early lead and get to rest their starters, so I'm staying away from the spread.

Instead, I'll look to the total for value. In the first matchup between these squads, the total closed at 138.5 and in the second game, it closed at 139.5. Both games went under, but both teams shot well below their season averages each time. With the total now at 135, I'm inclined to trust oddsmakers' initial assessment and think we're seeing an overreaction.

The over is 17-9 when Vermont is favored this season and 4-2 in Binghamton's last six as an underdog. I'll take the value on over 135 as my best bet in this one.

Pick: Over 135 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.