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Blue Jays vs Guardians Pick and Prediction for Friday, May 6 (Multiple Bets Dripping with Value)

By Joe Summers

Kevin Gausman hopes to continue his stellar start to the campaign as the Blue Jays battle the Guardians tonight
Kevin Gausman hopes to continue his stellar start to the campaign as the Blue Jays battle the Guardians tonight / Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages
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After a 6-5 win over Toronto yesterday, the 12-13 Cleveland Guardians have now won five of their last six as they host the 16-11 Blue Jays tonight at 7:10 PM EST.

Toronto has lost three of four but will send ace Kevin Gausman to the hill today. The former Giant has been superb through five starts, amassing a 2.57 ERA and giving up three or fewer runs in every outing.

Cleveland will counter with an ace of their own in Shane Bieber, who has a 2.45 ERA and has also allowed three or fewer runs in each of his five starts.

Which ace has the edge in what should be a competitive matchup? Can Toronto end their slump or will the Guardians stay hot?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET to help us find some value in this Blue Jays vs Guardians matchup:

Blue Jays vs Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)
  • Guardians +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline:

  • Blue Jays: -137
  • Guardians: +127

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction and Pick

Kevin Guasman sure is pitching like one of the best hurlers on the planet. He's given up just three earned runs in his last 21 innings and has at least nine strikeouts in four of his five starts. Gausman is in the 99th percentile in walk rate and 100th percentile in chase rate, so he's been sensational with command.

The Guardians present a difficult test, however, as they lead MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers and are on a roll. But the Blue Jays have the fourth-best defense in runs saved, so Guasman's tendency to force the ball in play will benefit Toronto.

On the other end, Shane Bieber has had excellent results but his underlying metrics suggest negative regression is coming. He's thrown against some terrible offenses like the Reds, Royals, and Athletics, and the Blue Jays are much, much better than those teams despite some offensive struggles of late. Take a peak at Bieber's pitching profile from Baseball Savant:

That's hardly elite. Toronto's lineup has mustered three or fewer runs in five of their last six, but did score five against Cleveland yesterday so they may finally be heating up.

Gausman has just been too good to ignore the value on the Blue Jays today. This is a great sell-high spot on the Guardians and buy-low on Toronto, who I still believe is the best team in the American League.

Toronto isn't the only bet with value, though, as the No Run First Inning (NRFI) is a play for me as well. Since 2020, the NRFI is an insane 30-3 when Bieber pitches and 38-11 for Gausman's starts. It's 5-0 in each starter's outings this season as well, so this is a bet begging for our dollars.

Pick: Blue Jays (-137) and No Run First Inning (-155)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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