Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Monday, September 5 (Positive Regression Coming Gausman's Way)

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34)
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays head from Pittsburgh down to Maryland for a series with their division rivals, the Baltimore Orioles. The first two of this four-gamer will be played on Labor Day with the Orioles 2.5 games behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. By day's end, the Orioles could be just a half game out of the postseason. 

Though the matchup on the mound is not in Baltimore’s favor. For Game 1, it’ll be Kevin Gausman pitching for Toronto and Jordan Lyles for Baltimore.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run line:

  • Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)
  • Orioles +1.5 (-110)


  • Blue Jays -175
  • Orioles +150


  • 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Blue Jays have been unbelievably consistent over their last six games. In a three-game series against the Cubs, they won two of three, but scored five runs in all three games. Then, they swept the Pirates and scored four runs in each of the games. I’m not sure if that means they will score three runs today, but they may need to put up more to win. 

Kevin Gausman has faced the Orioles once this year, and it did not go well. On June 16, he gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings and Baltimore won 10-2. He has pitched much better than that lately, with the Blue Jays winning five of his last six starts. Gausman has a 3.14 ERA, but a 2.12 fielding independent pitching that could point to some positive regression coming his way down the final stretch of the season. 

Jordan Lyles has not been particularly bad this season and the Orioles have also won five of his last six starts, but he has done that with a 4.25 ERA and 4.27 FIP. Lyles hasn’t been as reliable of a fade as you would expect, but I have to fade him today with Gausman on the other side. 

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)

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