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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 23 (Manoah Gives Blue Jays Edge)

By Joe Summers

Alek Manoah has allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 starts as Toronto takes on the Red Sox today
Alek Manoah has allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 starts as Toronto takes on the Red Sox today / Kevork Djansezian/GettyImages
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The real MVP of the All-Star Game, Alek Manoah, takes the mound today for the first time since entertaining the masses with his humor while striking out three in his only inning of the Mid-Summer Classic.

He'll look to continue a stellar season in which he's allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 starts, compiling a 10-4 record and 2.28 ERA in the process.

But the Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six as road favorites and Boston rookie Kutter Crawford is pitching well too, amassing a 2.20 ERA in three starts this month.

Can Toronto get back on track behind the affable Manoah or will Crawford continue his rise?

Before we analyze this Blue Jays vs Red Sox matchup, let's first take a peak at the consensus odds:

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)
  • Red Sox +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Blue Jays: -150
  • Red Sox: +130

Total:

  • 10.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Even if Manoah didn't give Toronto a massive advantage over Boston, the Blue Jays' lineup leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last month while the Red Sox rank 23rd. In my eyes, Toronto should be a larger favorite and I love the value on the visitors.

We can't forget Boston's baffling struggles against the AL East this year either, as they've yet to win a single series within the division.

Manoah is a joy to watch and listen to, but make no mistake: he's one of the very best pitchers in MLB. He's in the 97th percentile in hard hit percentage with no real weakness. Take a look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:

That's fantastic stuff. At the least, it represents a clear step-up from Kutter Crawford, who is improving but still has some issues to address. Here's his Statcast Profile:

Crawford has a 5.09 ERA at home. With how good the Blue Jays lineup is, Boston needs an off start from Manoah to have any chance at a victory.

I don't see that happening and will happily back Manoah at a modest price to continue his AL Cy Young campaign.

Pick: Blue Jays (-150)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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