Two Cy Young candidates square off in Chicago tonight when Dylan Cease and the 32-33 White Sox host Kevin Gausman and the 38-29 Toronto Blue Jays tonight at 8:10 PM EST.
While Cease hasn't made it through the sixth inning yet in June, he hasn't allowed an earned run in four straight starts.
Toronto has lost three straight Gausman starts as he's amassed a 6.75 ERA this month. Can he get back on track or will the White Sox earn consecutive wins to open the series?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Blue Jays vs White Sox matchup:
Blue Jays vs White Sox Odds, Run Line and Total
- Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
- White Sox +1.5 (-140)
- Blue Jays: -128
- White Sox: +118
- 9.0 (Over -120/Under +100)
Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction and Pick
After the White Sox shelled Jose Berrios yesterday and Toronto's comeback attempt fell just short, the Blue Jays have lost four of five and hope to get on track behind the suddenly struggling Kevin Gausman.
The Cy Young candidate got shelled in his last outing, giving up seven runs in 2.1 innings to the Orioles. He's got a 6.75 ERA in June after entering the month with a 2.51 ERA and he's down to the 36th percentile in expected batting average.
I'm not confident he'll rebound against a White Sox lineup that ranks fifth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. At the least, I'm not comfortable betting Gausman over Dylan Cease as a home underdog.
Cease had a weird few weeks. Over his last four starts, he's given up 10 runs but none of them were earned. That Chicago defense, Cease included, is not good. But the 26-year-old righty is quite good on the mound. His 2.82 expected ERA is much better than Gausman's 3.40, and Cease's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile is still elite stuff:
In fact, Cease hasn't allowed a single earned run in six of his last nine starts. If he can keep his walks down, he's as good as any pitcher in MLB. He issued only one in his most recent outing, so I'm optimistic he's turned a corner with his command.
The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five as favorites and the White Sox have won three of four behind Cease. This matchup is nearly equal in my eyes, and in those situations I'll back the better pitcher at home. Cease knows a strong performance today will put him right back in the Cy Young conversation - I'm betting he delivers.
Pick: White Sox (+118)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.