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Boise State vs. Colorado Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Four (Back Buffs)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 14, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard KJ Simpson (2) celebrates after a play
Mar 14, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard KJ Simpson (2) celebrates after a play / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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Boise State and Colorado each head from out west to Dayton, Ohio for the First Four of the NCAA Tournament.

Both the Broncos and Buffaloes will look to advance to the official first round of the NCAA Tournament to face Florida on Friday, but we need to first handicap this matchup between two at-large bids. Colorado played its best basketball down the stretch of the season and will look to overwhelm Mountain West foe Boise State on Wednesday night.

Here's our full betting preview for this First Four tilt.

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Boise State vs. Colorado Odds, Spread and Total

Colorado vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • Boise State is 17-13 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Colorado is 15-17-2 ATS this season
  • Colorado has gone OVER in 20 of 34 games this season
  • Boise State has gone UNDER in eight of 12 games as an underdog

Colorado vs. Boise State How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 20th
  • Game Time: 9:10 PM EST
  • Venue: UD Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): truTV
  • Colorado Record: 24-10
  • Boise State Record: 22-10

Boise State vs. Colorado Key Players to Watch

Boise State

O'Mar Stanley: The Broncos big man will be tasked with navigating a formidable frontline of the Buffaloes with the likes of Tristan da Silva and Eddie Lampkin on the other side, but Stanley has been able to have some big efforts as a scorer and a rebounder, including on March 2nd when he scored 24 points and grabbed 13 rebounds against New Mexico.

Colorado

KJ Simpson: The old saying goes something like "guards win in March." Well, the Buffs have a guard that can take over games in KJ Simpson, who averaged nearly 20 points per game and almost six rebounds with five assists for the Buffs. He is a knockdown shooter from the perimeter at over 45% as well as he looks to send the Buffs to a matchup with Florida in first round action.

Boise State vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick

This matchup doesn't set up well for Boise State, who has struggled to slow teams down that can get to the rim, which is a fixture of the Buffaloes offense.

While a proficient three-point shooting team, Colorado is fifth in the country in three-point percentage, the team is 323rd in three-point rate, as Tad Boyle's offense is more reliant on getting to the basket. ShotQuality scores the Buffs offense as a team that is top 40 in both "cut" and "finishing at the rim" play types, two places where Boise State struggles. The Broncos were 308th in defense against cuts and 227th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, per Haslametrics.

I believe Colorado, with its size down low, can overwhelm a limited Boise State frontcourt that lacks a matchup threat for the versatile da Silva, a forward who can play both inside and out (37% three-point shooter).

On the other side, the length of Colorado on the perimeter can make life difficult for a Broncos team that is reliant on perimeter shots. The team is 112th in three-point rate nationally, but the Buffs are an elite defense in that regard, 293rd in catch-and-shoot three-point defense frequency.

This is a poor stylistic matchup for Boise State and I believe Colorado advances.

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