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Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction and Odds (Injuries Loom Large on Mountain West Showdown)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Boise State Broncos guard Emmanuel Akot (14) shoots a jump shot
Jan 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Boise State Broncos guard Emmanuel Akot (14) shoots a jump shot / Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
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Boise State's winning streak has hit 13 with their last loss coming in November. Now they take their talents on the road against another formidable Mountain West foe in Fresno State.

However, the keys around this game center around the injury news. Boise's point guard Marcus Shaver will be a game time decision while Fresno's big man Orlando Robinson is likely to go (as of this writing) after missing the second half of the team's win over New Mexico earlier this week with an ankle injury.

Those two loom large over this high level MWC matchup. For now, let's look at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Boise State vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Boise State: -2 (-110)
  • Fresno State: +2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Boise State: -130
  • Fresno State: +110

Total: 119 (Over -115/Under -105)

Boise State vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick

The impact of Robinson can't be understated. He is ranked No. 4 in KenPom's National Player of the Year ranking, which is saying something for a team that is ranked 59th in the database at 14-5 in a competitive Mountain West. If he is hobbled, the Fresno offense is going to struggle to score against Boise's top 10 defense.

The Broncos pride themselves on their defense, top 10 in defensive rebounding rate, allow the 11th lowest three-point rate in the country, but also are top 15 in limiting two-point makes. They have the size to run team's off the three point line and the length to challenge all shots.

Shaver is a key part of the Boise State offense, but the team gets enough play making from forward Abu Kigab and Emmanuel Akot to get by. However, both teams are bottom 100 in adjusted tempo so I expect limited possessions.

With a hobbled Robinson, I actually lean towards the under despite the low total. However, I'm going to wait for some injury news before I lock in a bet.

LEAN: Under 119

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 26-34-3 for -10.4 units.

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