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Boise State vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5

Trust the home favorite to take care of business

By Reed Wallach

Memphis' Seth Henigan (2) looks to pass the ball during the game between the University of Memphis
Memphis' Seth Henigan (2) looks to pass the ball during the game between the University of Memphis / Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA
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Two Group of Five teams that can use a signature win in non-conference play meet on Saturday afternoon.

Memphis came up short against Missouri on Saturday night on a neutral field but gets to face another formidable opponent in Boise State, who is still searching for an impressive win after failing to beat both Washington and UCF in non-conference play.

How should we bet on this non-conference matchup between two teams that have been hit-or-miss to start the season? I've got you covered with a full betting breakdown below.

Boise State vs. Memphis Odds, Spread and Total

Memphis vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • Memphis is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Boise State is 2-2 ATS this season
  • Boise State has gone OVER in three of four games this season
  • Memphis is 2-0 to the OVER at home

Get ready for college football Week 5 with my picks against the spread for EVERY Top 25 game!

Boise State vs. Memphis How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, September 30th
  • Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • Boise State Record: 2-2
  • Memphis Record: 3-1

Boise State vs. Memphis Key Players to Watch

Boise State

Ashton Jeaanty: Jeanty has been the most consistent threat on this Boise State offense, filling in for injured George Hollani of late. Jeanty has 61 carries for 394 yards with four touchdowns so far this season. He's also been a key cog in the Broncos passing game, catching the second most passes (17) with two TD's.

Memphis

Seth Henigan: Memphis has talent all over, but it all revolves around the team's senior quarterback Henigan, who is leading the offense to top 50 marks in both success rate and EPA/Pass. This season, Henigan has completed 70% of his passes for 1,102 yards with 8 touchdowns but has thrown four interceptions, including two last week against Missouri. He must be more protective of the rock to get past Boise State, who has struggled to defend the pass all season, outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass.

Boise State vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick

As I broke down in my early week column that featured laying the points with Memphis, the Tigers have a ton of matchup advantages come Saturday.

The Broncos shaky secondary, that is replacing four of five starters from last season, is going to struggle to travel to Memphis on Saturday. The team has faced a difficult schedule that includes the best pass offense in the country in Washington, but this team has faced rush-first offenses like UCF and San Diego State and still struggled. Overall, this team is 110th in EPA/Pass.

On the other side, Memphis' biggest issue in Week 4 was stopping Luther Burden of Missouri, who hauled in 10 catches for 177 yards. Boise State lacks a wide receiver to take advantage like the future NFL player Burden, rating 120th in EPA/Pass this season.

Boise State continues to receive credit in the market after entering the season as the Mountain West favorites, but the team hasn't lived up to its billing. Meanwhile, Memphis has some serious upside on offense that can outpace the Broncos' lackluster offense which is underwhelming under first-year offensive coordinator.

Give me the Tigers to cover as the home favorite, and if you want to bet with me, make sure to opt into this FanDuel promotion below. You can sign up, deposit, and bet $5 on Memphis to cover and get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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