Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Jan. 31

Jan 20, 2024; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; New Mexico Lobos guard Jaelen House (10) controls the
Jan 20, 2024; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; New Mexico Lobos guard Jaelen House (10) controls the / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State takes the treacherous trip to The Pit on Wednesday night to face the surging New Mexico Lobos.

New Mexico is rolling in Mountain West play, 6-2 in league games and undefeated this season at home around elite guard play and a budding defense. The team hosts Boise State, who is formidable at 5-2 in MWC games but is off an overtime loss to Utah State at home. Will the team be able to respond in a hostile environment?

Oddsmakers aren't confident, should you? Let's break it all down with our full betting preview:

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Boise State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total

New Mexico vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • New Mexico is undefeated at home this season
  • New Mexico is 15-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • New Mexico is 15-3 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Boise State is 9-9 ATS this season
  • Boise State has gone UNDER in five of seven games as an underdog this season

Boise State vs. New Mexico How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, January 31st
  • Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
  • Venue: The Pit
  • How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
  • Boise State Record: 14-6
  • New Mexico Record: 18-3

Boise State vs. New Mexico Key Players to Watch

Boise State

Chibuzo Agbo: The senior wing is struggling in Mountain West play, down from his season-long average of about 40% to 34% from beyond the arc, and needs to get it going quickly as Boise State will have its hands full on the interior against a standout Lobos defense.

New Mexico

Jaelen House: House is enjoying a better season around the likes of Jamal Mashburn Jr and Donovan Dent. His efficiency is up a good bit while he is playing the role of a facilitator more often. However, he is the explosive one of the bunch, shooting 37% from deep and racking up a top 10 steal rate in the country, fueling the Lobos top turnover rate on defense in MWC play. That'll be impactful against Boise State's ball handlers who are 10th in Mountain West turnover percentage.

Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

The market continues to support the Lobos at home, who bolster one of the most tangible home court advantages in the country. However, I can't get there against Boise State, who may not be as good as it has been in recent years under head coach Leon Rice but has lost only two games by double digits this season.

The Lobos shut down the perimeter for opponents and do a great job on the defensive glass, top 20 in the country in opponent's three-point percentage and defensive rebounding rate.

However, I'm confident the Lobos can score. The team has done it all season, scoring at least 75 points in all but one home game this season. New Mexico plays at the eighth fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom a,nd is 67th in effective field goal percentage. Further, Boise State is weak at defending teams that get downhill, exactly what UNM wants to do. The Lobos are 344th in three-point rate and 23rd in finishing at the rim, per ShotQuality.

Boise State is a middling rim defense, 173 in points allowed per 100 possessions and is middle of the road as well in transition defense (145th in points allowed per 100 possessions).

This matchup should feature plenty of possessions and enough offense for the Lobos to hit its quota against a Boise State defense that isn't the same as NCAA Tournament groups from years prior.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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