Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 2
By Reed Wallach
Boise State's season got off on the wrong foot in Corvallis, Oregon on Saturday, losing 34-17 to Oregon State.
Now, the Broncos must turnaround quickly and keep their focus against a Mountain West opponent in New Mexico. The Lobos will be looking to avoid last place in the MWC this season, but they did dispose of their opening week opponent, Maine, by the score of 41-0.
Boise State's Hank Bachmeier struggled with turnovers in Week 1, as three of his six drives had a TO before he was benched in the second quarer.
Can the Broncos signal caller get back on track? He is listed on the depth chart as the starter this week and will have the opportunity to ease concerns as a big road favorite on Friday night.
Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Boise State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Boise State: -17 (-110)
- New Mexico: +17 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Boise State: -1000
- New Mexico: +575
Total:
- 47 (Over -110/Under -110)
Boise State vs. New Mexico Betting Trends
- Boise State has gone 66-16 straight up (SU) in Mountain West play over the last 10 seasons
- In Andy Avalos first season at Boise State, the team went 2-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite
- New Mexico is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog under Danny Gonzalez
Boise State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick
If you dig deeper into Boise State's loss to Oregon State, it wasn't as bad as the score line indicates. The team fell behind due to early turnovers and the inability to stop the explosive pass, but that shouldn't come into play here against a Lobos team that only forced 14 turnovers last season and was outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate.
Boise State and Oregon State had a similar success rate in this one, meaning that on a down-by-down basis, the two teams graded out as a near draw. The Beavers had a 36% success rate while the Broncos had a 31% success rate, and Boise State was particularly strong against the run, allowing just a 32% SR on runs.
Neither team plays very fast, New Mexico in particular had the fourth slowest plays rate in the country last season, and I can see this game being a slug fest. Boise State will likely open up an early lead and then slow this game down and head home with a win. Meanwhile, New Mexico's offense should struggle to attack Boise State on the ground, its preferred method, and punt the ball back to the Broncos quickly.
LEAN: Under 47
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