Boise State vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1

Hank Bachmeier threw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns last season for the Broncos
Hank Bachmeier threw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns last season for the Broncos / Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Remember the final scene from The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air when Will Smith looks around the empty house sad that everyone else left?

That's what I imagine when I think of Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Aside from him and George Halani, most of last year's offensive production is gone, so we'll see if Bachmeier has the star quality Will Smith did to carry on alone.

Bachmeier threw for over 3,000 yards in 2021 with 20 touchdowns, and I'm curious to see how the signal caller looks this season. The Broncos won four of their final five games last year, though Oregon State has reason for optimism as well.

The Beavers return a ton of talent from a team that finished 7-6. Chance Nolan helms a deep offense with several quality running backs, and I'm encouraged about the defense as well.

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for the Week 1 matchup:

Boise State vs Oregon State Odds, Spread and Total

Boise State vs Oregon State Betting Trends

Boise State

  • 7-5 against the spread last 12 games
  • UNDER is 7-0 last seven games
  • 7-1 ATS last eight games as underdog

Oregon State

  • 7-4 ATS last 11 games
  • UNDER is 4-1 last four games at home
  • 6-1 ATS last seven games as home favorite

Boise State vs Oregon State Prediction and Pick

Boise State lost a fair amount of offensive starters, but the losses Oregon State suffered are perhaps more impactful. The Beavers had one of college football's best offensive lines in 2021 and must proceed without the services of their top running back and two excellent lineman.

Meanwhile, the Broncos brought back 10 of 11 defensive starters, which I think proves the difference in this matchup. The defense already ranked among the country's best in several key categories, like Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Stuff Rate, and Passing Success Rate Allowed, so Boise State may wind up with one of America's better defensive units.

I trust Hank Bachmeier more than I trust Chance Nolan, who threw 10 interceptions last year and will likely struggle behind a much worse offensive line.

The Broncos are incredibly feisty in this spot too, covering the spread in five consecutive games as road underdogs. With a stellar defense and the better quarterback, Boise State should cover the short number. Bachmeier might be destined for Hollywood, after all.

PICK: Boise State +3 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.