Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4
By Reed Wallach
Boise State and San Diego State will start Mountain West play on Friday night in San Diego.
The Broncos have struggled to start the season, just 1-2 after making the Mountain West Championship game, but can erase some concerns with a road win against a lackluster San Diego State offense. Oddsmakers are bullish on the Broncos getting off to a strong conference start, but will it play out that way?
Here are the odds and our best bets for this Mountain West opener:
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Boise State vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Trends
- Boise State is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- San Diego State is 2-2 ATS this season
- San Diego State has gone UNDER in three of four games this season
Boise State vs. San Diego State How to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 22nd
- Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
- Venue: Snapdragon Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
- Boise State Record: 2-1
- San Diego State Record: 2-2
Boise State vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch
Boise State
Taylen Green: After taking over midseason in 2022, Green has struggled in 2023, completing only 52% of his passes with more interceptions than touchdown passes. Green is a dual-threat quarterback, who will look to use his legs to open up the passing game against a San Diego State rush defense that is outside the top 100 in success rate.
San Diego State
Jalen Mayden: While he didn't have the success that Green did in 2022, Mayden stepped in mid-season last year and had some bright flashes, but hasn't taken the next step in 2023. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes and is averaging only about five yards per dropback.
Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
It's worth noting that the team hasn't had starting running back George Holani under center the past two games, but the Broncos have still been able to move the ball on the ground. This season, Boise State is 10th in EPA/Rush and I believe that will be the preferred method of attack against a San Diego State defense that is struggling to stop opponents on the ground (fourth worst success rate against the run this season).
Boise State can attack on the ground and keep the chains moving against San Diego State, but the Aztecs won't be able to counter. The team is averaging less than five yards per play (107th in the country) and has allowed 29 tackles for loss (127th).
The Broncos defense is a bit underrated after getting gashed by Washington in its opener and I believe that we continue to see the unit's numbers improve when facing some of the more average to below average groups in the Mountain West.
I lean towards Boise State covering the touchdown spread, but I'll opt for the under in a battle of two run-first attacks.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!