Bowling Green vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12

Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) celebrates
Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Dequan Finn (7) celebrates / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo's pursuit of a MAC Championship is getting clearer and clearer as the team avoided losing as double digit favorites to Ball State at home last week.

This week, the Rockets play host to Bowling Green in hopes of moving to 8-3 on the season. Toledo got back quarterback Dequan Finn from injury last week, can he play himself back into form ahead of a MAC title game? Let's first see the odds for this MACtion meeting:

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Betting Trends

  • Toledo is 4-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Bowling Green is 3-6-1 ATS this season
  • Bowling Green has gone OVER in all four away games this season

Bowling Green vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

Toledo looked shaky in Finn's return to the lineup after missing the team's last game with an injury. A late touchdown gave them a 28-21 win against a frisky Ball State team, and now they enter as double digit favorites yet again, can they look the part of a conference title favorite?

They will face a Bowling Green team that is fresh off a 40-6 blowout loss to Kent State. This is a team that is 95th in yards per play allowed and outside the top 100 in defensive line yards and explosive rush defense. Even if Finn isn't himself just yet under center, the Rockets can likely lean on the ground game where they check in 41st nationally in yards per carry (4.71) and also are a top 40 in explosive run rate.

Meanwhile, the Falcons offense is going to be up against it. The team grades out bottom 30 in most offensive metrics, including yards per play, red zone touchdown percentage and tackles for loss allowed. The team fails to protect quarterback Matt McDonald and has a putrid run game.

While Toledo's defense can be vulnerable to big plays, the Bowling Green offense is bottom half of the country in generating them, so I don't figure that to be a big issue.

This is setting up for a blowout win for the Rockets as they head towards the MAC title game in a few weeks.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.