Braves vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 17 (Brewers Stay Hot at Home)

The 23-13 Milwaukee Brewers host the 16-20 Atlanta Braves tonight at 7:40 p.m. EST after notching a 1-0 win yesterday in the first contest of this three-game series.

Milwaukee is now 11-4 at home and sends Adrian Houser to the mound in this one. Houser surrendered seven earned runs in his last two starts, covering nine innings, but has a solid 3.86 ERA through six outings overall.

Tucker Davidson gets his first start of the year for Atlanta. He compiled a 4.44 ERA in five AAA starts before getting called up. Davidson got shelled for five runs in 2.2 innings in his lone major league appearance this season, but did throw a quality start in three of five 2021 outings.

Can the Brewers stay hot at home against their inexperienced opponent or will the Braves get back in the win column?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to help find out ahead of this Braves vs Brewers matchup:

Braves vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Braves +1.5 (-200)
• Brewers -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

• Braves: +110
• Brewers: -120

Total:

• 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Braves vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

I must confess, I'm a bit confused here. Sure, Adrian Houser has struggled in his last two starts. But the Brewers are only -120 favorites to a guy with a 4.44 ERA in the minors making his first big league start of the season? You mean the same Brewers that lead MLB in OPS this month and are 11-4 at home?

Uh, sign me up. In Davidson's last major league start, he gave up five runs in 2.1 innings to Boston last season. This season, he surrendered five runs in 2.2 innings to Washington in his only MLB appearance. How is this guy almost even money with the hottest lineup in baseball?

In three home starts this season, Houser has a 2.78 ERA and takes on a Braves lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS in May. He struggled with command in his last outing, walking four against the Reds, but he's historically been better at home. In 2021, Houser had a 2.81 ERA in 15 home appearances, so his road issues don't typically carry over.

I'll happily back Milwaukee to improve to 11-2 over their last 13 home games and push Atlanta to 2-6 in their last eight road tilts. Davidson isn't good enough to slow the Brewers bats down and I think we're getting tremendous value on the run line.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+165)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.