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Braves vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 31 (Expect Lots of Home Runs)

By Joe Summers

The Diamondbacks should score plenty of runs as they take on Charlie Morton & the Braves today
The Diamondbacks should score plenty of runs as they take on Charlie Morton & the Braves today / Norm Hall/GettyImages
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The 24-26 Arizona Diamondbacks pulled off an upset victory over the 23-26 Atlanta Braves last night to snap a four-game losing streak. They'll aim for two straight wins today at 9:40 PM EST.

Humberto Castellanos takes the hill for Arizona after giving up six runs and 10 hits in four innings to the Dodgers in his last outing. That was just the second time he's given up more than three runs in a start all year, but due to his lack of stamina he still has a 5.96 ERA in six home appearances.

Atlanta will counter with Charlie Morton, who gave up four runs and nine hits to Philadelphia in his most recent start. He's been a disaster on the road, compiling a 6.75 ERA in four appearances while struggling to prevent home runs.

Can either pitcher bounce back in this battle between teams trying to climb the standings? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to see where the value lies in this Braves vs Diamondbacks matchup:

Braves vs Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Diamondbacks +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

  • Braves: -156
  • Diamondbacks: +146

Total:

  • 9.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

As seems to be a common theme today, this is a bad pitching matchup. Humberto Castellanos has been playing with fire all year, ranking in the 24th percentile in expected batting average and 30th in expected ERA. But for the most part, he's emerged unscathed. Until last week, that is, when he got shelled by the Dodgers.

Atlanta's offense has heated up after Ronald Acuna Jr.'s return to the lineup and I expect them to have success today. Castellanos has given up six home runs in his last four starts and the Braves average the fifth-most long balls in MLB this year. Arizona's bullpen is among the worst in the league as well, so Atlanta's lineup should be salivating for this matchup.

But the Diamondbacks should be thrilled to face Charlie Morton too. Morton has a 6.75 ERA on the road and his underlying metrics are even worse than Castellanos', ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected batting average and 22nd in expected ERA. He's given up a homer in back-to-back outings and Arizona is sixth in home runs per game, right behind Atlanta.

The under has been a great bet when Arizona is at home, but I'm taking the over today. A whopping 31 runs have been scored in Castellanos' last two starts and the over has hit in six consecutive Morton starts. On the year, the over is 8-1 in Morton's nine outings. As a bonus, it's 10-3-1 in Atlanta's last 14 as a favorite.

Take the over as each pitcher's struggles continue against potent lineups.

Pick: Over 9.0 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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