Braves vs. Mets Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Saturday, August 6 (War of Max's Commences)

Max Fried ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.47 FIP
Max Fried ranks fourth in MLB with a 2.47 FIP / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

In a battle for the ages, we'll soon know which Max reigns supreme as he of the Fried house wages war against the Scherzer surname's finest.

The Atlanta Braves won 11 of Mr. Fried's last 13 starts as he's thrown a quality start in 12 of his last 14 outings. With a 2.58 ERA, Fried is one of the NL's best pitchers.

On the other end, the New York Mets are 23-4 in Mr. Scherzer's last 27 starts. He's thrown a quality start in 11 of his 14 outings while amassing an obscene 2.09 ERA at home.

Sure, this contest also has huge implications on the NL East playoff race as New York holds a 4.5-game advantage over Atlanta, but I'm here for the Max's. Which Max, and thus which club, will hold bragging rights in what could be a postseason preview?

To find out where the value lies in this Max vs Max, Braves vs Mets matchup, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Braves vs Mets Game 1 Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Braves: +1.5 (-190)
  • Mets: -1.5 (+155)


  • Braves: +113
  • Mets: -123


  • 9 (Over +100/Under -120)

Braves vs Mets Prediction and Pick

You've got to love kicking off a wild Saturday slate with a heavyweight title bout between two of the league's most dominant pitchers. Talk about setting the tone.

These teams have two of the five best World Series odds at WynnBET (+600 for the Mets, +1000 for the Braves) while each pitcher ranks in the top eight in consensus NL Cy Young odds (+5000 for Scherzer, +1100 for Fried). This is as good a matchup as we'll have in the regular season and I can't wait for it.

Fried ranks in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage and the 92nd in chase rate, so he's elite at both preventing hard contact and getting batters to swing outside the zone. That's a deadly combination, and it's no wonder Fried has the fourth-best FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of all qualified pitchers (2.47).

Scherzer's 2.64 FIP would be sixth-best if he had enough innings to qualify, and he's compiled a ridiculous 1.61 ERA since returning from injury.

Simply put, it's tough to pick a winner here. That being said, I'm inclined to side with Fried and Atlanta. Scherzer has an expected FIP over 5.20 in each of his last two starts, while Fried hasn't exceeded a 3.89 FIP in a single road outing this year.

New York's bullpen looks shaky and the Mets lost two of Scherzer's last four home starts. I think we're getting strong value on the Braves behind Fried, though it'll be a dog fight. Enjoy the show, and let's see which Max can return home with pride.

Pick: Braves ML (+113)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.