Braves vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Sunday, September 25 (Keep Fading Struggling Kyle Gibson)

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Gibson.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Gibson. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves are still chasing the New York Mets in the NL East, sitting 1.5 games back coming into Sunday’s series finale with the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Atlanta gained a game on the Mets with a win on Saturday, but the Phillies took the first two games of this four-game set. Can Atlanta salvage the split in an afternoon showdown? 

The Braves send veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.09 ERA) to the mound in this game against Kyle Gibson (10-7, 4.71 ERA). Gibson has been brutal in the month of September, pitching to a 9.68 ERA in his four starts. 

Let’s jump into the odds for this game and make a pick: 

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

This is a pretty simple game for me, even though the Phillies won the first two games of this series. 

Gibson has been downright awful this month, allowing seven, four, one and seven runs in his four starts. He’s getting knocked around in these starts as well, allowing 32 hits in just 17.2 innings pitched. 

That’s going to be problematic against a Braves offense that ranks second in OPS, second in home runs and third in runs scored this season. Even though Morton hasn’t been lights out in 2022, he’s been serviceable, pitching to a 3.57 ERA over the last two months. 

The Phillies also rank 22nd in bullpen ERA in 2022, so even if Gibson pitches well, I don’t have a ton of confidence this team will be able to hold a lead. Give me Atlanta to win at what feels like a discounted price. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.