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Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 10 (Boston Sets Up as Sneaky Home Dog vs. Atlanta)

By Ben Heisler

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has not pitched six innings in a start since June 29 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has not pitched six innings in a start since June 29 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
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The Boston Red Sox keep tumbling further and further down the stairs into the AL East basement.

They've lost three straight, and find themselves three games under .500 at 54-57, and 17 games back of the first place New York Yankees.

They'll look to stop their skid tonight against the Atlanta Braves after the Braves took Game 1 Tuesday night 9-7 at Fenway Park; improving to 44-6 when they score five or more runs.

Kyle Wright (13-5, 3.22 ERA) faces Nick Pivetta (8-8, 4.51 ERA) in Game 2 tonight as Boston's third-ranked batting average matches up against one of Atlanta's top young starters in Wright. Can the Red Sox get it going on both sides tonight? Or will the losing streak reach four?

Here are the odds for tonight's showdown over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Red Sox +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Braves -138
  • Red Sox +128

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Atlanta has given Wright plenty of run support all year, and his win/loss record reflects it. He's tied for second in the Majors with 13 wins, trailing only Justin Verlander's 15 on the season.

However, when you put both pitchers side-by-side when looking at non win-loss record and ERA, there's more similarities than one might think.

Wright strikes out 8.67 batters per nine innings, while Pivetta comes in at 8.66. Wright's Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP, is more than a half a run higher than his 3.22 ERA (3.75), while Pivetta's FIP is a half a run lower than his ERA (4.51 to 4.16).

Wright has also put up far better numbers at home compared to the road this year, seeing a considerable drop in strikeouts per nine innings, an increase in walks, and a FIP nearly a full run higher.

Boston's offense is back to playing solid baseball, and if Pivetta can steady the ship, this is a game Boston can and should win at home. I'm happy to take a chance on them at plus-value.

PICK: Red Sox ML +128

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