The 44-33 Atlanta Braves find themselves massive favorites in Cincinnati today as they start a three-game series with the 26-49 Reds tonight at 6:40 PM EST.
Max Fried's worst start of the season came against the Reds in his first outing, so he'll look for revenge after compiling a dazzling 2.16 June ERA. He's allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts as the Braves have won seven straight behind him.
Cincy looks to Mike Minor in the midst of a brutal stretch. They're 3-10 in their last 13 and Minor may pour gasoline on the dumpster fire, bringing a 7.71 ERA into the contest. Dating back to last year, Minor's team is 1-11 in his last 12 starts.
Can Minor become an unlikely hero to get Cincinnati back on track or will Fried get his revenge in a dominant win?
To find the value in this Braves vs Reds matchup, let's peak at the odds from our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook:
Braves vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total
- Braves -1.5 (-165)
- Reds +1.5 (+135)
- Braves: -260
- Reds: +238
- 9.5 (Over -110/Under -1110)
Braves vs Reds Prediction and Pick
I'm not much of a cook, but I certainly try. Just load everything up with Lawry's seasoning and call it a day, right? Really though, I'll work in the kitchen for a few hours and grow satisfied with what I've made. Then, I'll go to a restaurant and instantly realize I'm overmatched. These chefs are just better than me.
Well, meatball subs are one-star chef Mike Minor's specialty and he's toast against Max Fried and the Braves. Atlanta is just better, you know?
Minor has given up 10 home runs already in just five starts. Atlanta averages the second-most home runs per game in MLB, so expect to see a lot of highlights like this:
Minor is on the short-list for "Worst Starters in MLB" and Atlanta will welcome the step-down in competition after tough series against the Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies. The Reds have lost five straight as home underdogs, all by multiple runs, and I've got no faith whatsoever that they'll take down a Braves squad that's won 10 of 12 as road favorites by a combined score of 76-35.
All four of Minor's losses this year have come by at least three runs, and I think Atlanta wins in a blowout. Fried has been one of the league's best pitchers and he's rolling. I don't like paying -165 juice for the Braves on the run line, so instead I'll look to the alternate line of -2.5 (+100).
The Reds can use all Lawry's seasoning they want, but at the end of the day they're still overmatched.
Pick: Braves -2.5 (+100)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.