Braves vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 3 (Braves' Lineup Keeps Rolling)
By Joe Summers
We've got a series finale between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves this afternoon at 1:40 PM EST.
Charlie Morton has allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts after surrendering at least four in as many consecutive outings. He has a 4.73 ERA on the season, but the Braves have won eight of 10 behind him regardless.
Cincy turns to Luis Castillo coming off six shutout innings against the Cubs. Castillo has a quality start in five of his last six appearances, though he's struggled at home with a 5.14 ERA.
Can Atlanta stay hot behind Morton or will Castillo give the Reds a much-needed home win?
Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us pick a winner in this Braves vs Reds matchup:
Braves vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Braves: -1.5 (+125)
- Reds: +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline:
- Braves: -140
- Reds: +120
Total:
- 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Braves vs Reds Prediction and Pick
I've been fading Charlie Morton lately with limited success, as the 38-year-old has come on strong in recent weeks. He had a 7.00 ERA in April, a 4.60 ERA in May and a 3.52 ERA in June, so he's steadily improved throughout the season.
Charlie Morton, Disgusting Curveballs. 🤮
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 28, 2022
3185, 3155 and 3079 RPMs pic.twitter.com/8celkDzMj5
With a diet of nasty breaking balls and pinpoint location, Morton has been really impressive.
Luis Castillo has impressed too, but his 5.14 home ERA is concerning against a Braves lineup that has the second-highest OPS in MLB over the last month.
When healthy, this Braves lineup nearly looks like an All-Star team by itself.
— KC Covington (@FriedBasballATL) July 2, 2022
1. Acuña 2022 All-Star
2. Dansby ‘22 AS
3. Olson ‘21 AS
4. Riley ‘22 AS (likely)
5. d’Arnaud ‘22 AS?
6. Albies ‘21 AS
7. Rosario
8. Duvall
9. Harris ‘23 AS (I’ll bet you. Already playing like one.) pic.twitter.com/Hg8HqMsWIf
That's a genuinely obscene lineup and it's no wonder they've won 11 of 13 as road favorites. Cincinnati's bullpen is terrible, so even if Castillo pitches Morton to a draw, Atlanta has the edge.
Dating back to last season, the Reds are 5-12 in Castillo's last 17 starts and we're getting excellent value on their struggles to continue.
I'll back the Braves on the run line at plus money, but I also like the over. Morton hasn't quite earned complete trust, but Atlanta's lineup has. The over is 10-2 in Morton's last dozen starts and 13-3 in Cincinnati's last 16 as home underdogs. Take the Braves in another high-scoring blowout.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+125) and Over 8.5 (-115)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.