We've got a series finale between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves this afternoon at 1:40 PM EST.
Charlie Morton has allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts after surrendering at least four in as many consecutive outings. He has a 4.73 ERA on the season, but the Braves have won eight of 10 behind him regardless.
Cincy turns to Luis Castillo coming off six shutout innings against the Cubs. Castillo has a quality start in five of his last six appearances, though he's struggled at home with a 5.14 ERA.
Can Atlanta stay hot behind Morton or will Castillo give the Reds a much-needed home win?
Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us pick a winner in this Braves vs Reds matchup:
Braves vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total
- Braves: -1.5 (+125)
- Reds: +1.5 (-145)
- Braves: -140
- Reds: +120
- 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Braves vs Reds Prediction and Pick
I've been fading Charlie Morton lately with limited success, as the 38-year-old has come on strong in recent weeks. He had a 7.00 ERA in April, a 4.60 ERA in May and a 3.52 ERA in June, so he's steadily improved throughout the season.
With a diet of nasty breaking balls and pinpoint location, Morton has been really impressive.
Luis Castillo has impressed too, but his 5.14 home ERA is concerning against a Braves lineup that has the second-highest OPS in MLB over the last month.
That's a genuinely obscene lineup and it's no wonder they've won 11 of 13 as road favorites. Cincinnati's bullpen is terrible, so even if Castillo pitches Morton to a draw, Atlanta has the edge.
Dating back to last season, the Reds are 5-12 in Castillo's last 17 starts and we're getting excellent value on their struggles to continue.
I'll back the Braves on the run line at plus money, but I also like the over. Morton hasn't quite earned complete trust, but Atlanta's lineup has. The over is 10-2 in Morton's last dozen starts and 13-3 in Cincinnati's last 16 as home underdogs. Take the Braves in another high-scoring blowout.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+125) and Over 8.5 (-115)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.