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Brewers vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 7 (Fried to Good to Fade at Home)

By Ben Heisler

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried is 21-9 with a 3.13 ERA at home in his career.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried is 21-9 with a 3.13 ERA at home in his career. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
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The top pitching matchup of Major League Baseball's Saturday evening slate takes place at Truist Park as Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers head to Atlanta to face Max Fried and the Braves.

Atlanta continues to scuffle through the first month of defending their World Series title; falling to 12-16 in their Friday night loss to the Brewers.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee remains red-hot; improving to 19-8 in the victory, while winning nine of their last 10 games including four in a row.

Let's check out the latest odds for Saturday evening's pitcher's duel over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Braves +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers -105
  • Braves -105

Total:

  • 7 (OVER +105 | UNDER -125)

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Oddsmakers are showing a ton of respect to Fried and the Braves as a toss-up team on the moneyline with Milwaukee; who from every account should be underdogs at home.

The Brewers are tied for the best record in the National League with the New York Mets, have won four straight, and have scored the most total runs in all of baseball (131). Their starter, Burnes, has struck out 10-plus hitters in each of his last three games!

Is it all tied to their trust in Fried at home?

Perhaps. Fried has also been excellent over his last three starts, going at least six innings in all and no more than three runs allowed while averaging six strikeouts. Throughout his Atlanta career, he's 21-9 at home with a 3.13 ERA with a solid WHIP of 1.155. Good, but by no means an auto-bet.

Ultimately, I'm surprised that the number for Atlanta is where it is, leading me to think there's something I'm not seeing for this game on the Braves' side against a very good pitcher in Corbin Burnes. Instead of taking a side, I'll back the first five inning total of 3.5; as both pitchers have been fantastic through their first two times through the order all year.

LEAN: MIL vs. ATL First 5 UNDER 3.5 Runs (-125)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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