Betsided

Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Saturday, August 13 (Burnes Owns St. Louis)

By Joe Summers

Corbin Burnes has a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis
Corbin Burnes has a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The Milwaukee Brewers have four straight losses as road favorites and suddenly find themselves 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

Corbin Burnes hopes to stop Milwaukee's skid, bringing a stellar 2.01 road ERA into today's contest. He's struggled a bit with command of late though, walking seven batters in his last two starts.

Adam Wainwright issued four walks himself in his last outing, giving up six runs in just four innings to the Yankees. Wainwright has a 2.47 ERA at home, but his underlying metrics are far from encouraging.

Can Burnes give Milwaukee a much-needed victory or will St. Louis stay hot despite Wainwright's poor form?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this Brewers vs Cardinals matchup:

Brewers vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers: -1.5 (+130)
  • Cardinals: +1.5 (-160)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: -138
  • Cardinals: +128

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -110/Under -130)

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Corbin Burnes has two starts against St. Louis this season. Here are his stats from those games:

  • 14 innings pitched
  • 0 runs allowed
  • 4 hits allowed
  • 3 walks
  • 21 strikeouts

The guy dominates these Cardinals. In fact, dating back to last season, Burnes continually destroys St. Louis. Over his last six starts against his divisional foe, Burnes has a 1.00 ERA with four shutouts.

I know the Cardinals' lineup is on fire, but the Brewers should be larger than -138 favorites today. That's especially true considering Adam Wainwright is pitching for the Red Birds.

Wainwright has an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.59 in five of his last six starts, including three starts over 5.44. A 4.59 expected FIP would be the fourth-worst among all qualified pitchers, so Wainwright is in a terrible funk.

With Burnes' history of excellence and Wainwright's recent struggles, I'm taking the value on Milwaukee. We're getting a discount on the Brewers and I'm thrilled to capitalize.

Pick: Brewers ML (-138)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Home/MLB Odds