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Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Thursday, May 26 (Brewers With Value in Rare Underdog Spot)

By Joe Summers

The Brewers are 6-1 when Eric Lauer starts and hope for another win as they take on the Cardinals today
The Brewers are 6-1 when Eric Lauer starts and hope for another win as they take on the Cardinals today / John Fisher/GettyImages
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The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals open up a four-game series tonight at 7:45 PM EST.

We've got a sensational pitching matchup in store between the two best teams in the National League Central, as Eric Lauer takes on Adam Wainwright.

Lauer has a quality start in five of his last six outings; compiling a 4-1 record and 2.16 ERA.

Meanwhile, Wainwright is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in May. He's only allowed eight hits in 20 innings this month, so he's done a tremendous job preventing run-scoring threats and looks like the dominant Wainwright of old.

Can he stay hot to deliver St. Louis a home win over their division rival or will Lauer and Milwaukee emerge victorious?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find some value in this Brewers vs Cardinals matchup:

Brewers vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Cardinals -1.5 (+155)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: +107
  • Cardinals: -117

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Lauer and Wainwright make for an elite pitching matchup between two teams with World Series aspirations. Milwaukee has the third-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers this month while St. Louis leads MLB in OPS against lefties.

In short, this is a heavyweight title bout of strength vs strength at every level. Lauer ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage and 84th in walk rate, displaying exceptional command while generating swings-and-misses. But, he's in just 33rd percentile in average exit velocity, so he can be beat, especially with heavy winds expected today. He's given up seven home runs this year and needs to limit hard contact to beat a potent Cardinals lineup.

Wainwright does an incredible job in that department, ranking in the 95th percentile in hard hit percentage. If he's had an Achilles Heel, it's been command. He's in just the 35th percentile in walk rate, while Milwaukee is ninth in average walks per game.

The Brewers are underdogs for just the fifth time this season and but have won two of their last three. They've been impressive on the road; 12-7 over their previous 19, while the Cardinals have been shaky as a home favorite. St. Louis is 4-4 in their last eight when favored at Busch Stadium, including a loss to Arizona with Wainwright pitching.

Ultimately, I'm inclined to trust Lauer and his strong command over Wainwright. Two of Wainwright's three dominant starts this month came against the Pirates and Royals, amongst the worst lineups in baseball. Milwaukee is 6-1 when Lauer pitches this season and have the superior bullpen.

Back the Brewers in a highly-competitive contest.

Pick: Brewers (+107)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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