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Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 12 (Cardinals' Lineup Should Explode)

By Joe Summers

Paul Goldschmidt has a 1.254 OPS in August ahead of today's matchup with the Brewers
Paul Goldschmidt has a 1.254 OPS in August ahead of today's matchup with the Brewers / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
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The closest division race in baseball will have some clarity over the next few days, as the Milwaukee Brewers open up a three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals sitting just a half-game back in the NL Central.

Jordan Montgomery makes his second start for the Cardinals after throwing five scoreless innings against his former team, the Yankees. He struggled at the end of his New York tenure, with the Yankees losing six straight behind him, but perhaps a change of scenery is all Montgomery needed to return to strong form.

Eric Lauer gets the call for the Brewers, limiting the Reds to one run over seven innings in his last start. He's got a 4.47 road ERA and allowed five runs to the Cardinals in a June loss, so Milwaukee needs a better performance this time around.

Can Lauer bounce back against St. Louis or will Montgomery throw another gem? Let's analyze this Brewers vs Cardinals matchup, using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Brewers vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers +1.5 (-155)
  • Cardinals -1.5 (+127)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: +148
  • Cardinals: -158

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over +100/Under -120)

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

I've long believed the Brewers were overrated, and I'm thrilled to fade them against the Cardinals in this series.

Not only does Milwaukee's lineup rank 24th in OPS against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star Break, but Eric Lauer is a screaming negative regression candidate on the mound.

Lauer allowed just one earned run in three of his last four starts, but had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.96 in each outing. That'd be the second-worst expected FIP among all qualified pitchers, so he's pitching like one of the worst starters in MLB right now. He's walked at least three batters in each of those four starts, too.

That's bad news against a Cardinals lineup that handily leads MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last month. I expect Paul Goldschmidt and company to hammer Lauer and Milwaukee's suddenly-struggling bullpen.

St. Louis has seven straight wins as a home favorite. I see that trend continuing in convincing fashion this evening.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+127)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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