Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 24 (Dodgers Overwhelm Houser)

Trea Turner and the Dodgers are 25-5 in their last 30 games as home favorites
Trea Turner and the Dodgers are 25-5 in their last 30 games as home favorites / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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Despite scoring zero runs on Monday, the Los Angeles Dodgers still have 27 runs combined over the last four days. The lineup is absolutely rolling, and likely chomping at the bit to take on Milwaukee Brewers' starter Adrian Houser in tonight's series finale.

Houser is a disaster on the road, compiling a 5.89 ERA. The Brewers are 2-8 in his last 10 starts overall, and he's making his first MLB start since June after spending time on the Injured List.

Los Angeles turns to Andrew Heaney, who took a loss to Milwaukee his last time out. Overall, Heaney has been a stellar addition to the Dodgers' rotation, amassing a 1.77 ERA as Los Angeles is 4-1 in his last five starts.

Can the Dodgers end the series with another runs bonanza or will Houser look rejuvenated after spending two months sidelined?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Brewers vs Dodgers series finale:

Brewers vs Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers +1.5 (+105)
  • Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: +215
  • Dodgers: -240

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction and Pick

In the Dodgers' last 30 games as home favorites, they're a remarkable 25-5. 22 of those wins came on the run line, and I expect another dominant win for the best team in baseball tonight.

You see, Adrian Houser is a nightmare on the road. Here is his expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from his last five road starts prior to injury:

  • 6/30 @ PIT: 8.17
  • 6/19 @ CIN: 4.92
  • 6/14 @ NYM: 3.73
  • 5/28 @ STL: 5.57
  • 5/23 @ SDP: 3.52
  • 5/11 @ CIN: 5.72

Those are terrible numbers, and it's no wonder Houser has a 5.89 ERA away from home this year. Just look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and tell me the Dodgers aren't scoring a metric million runs tonight:

It should be a brutal "Welcome Back" game for Houser. Meanwhile, the Brewers should find trouble scoring against Andrew Heaney. Despite allowing three runs in only 4.2 innings to Milwaukee last week, Heaney had a 1.37 expected FIP. He was just unlucky, not bad.

The Brewers rank 24th in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month and I don't think they'll find lightning in a bottle two games in a row. Give me the Dodgers to notch another win on the run line as Houser flounders.

PICK: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)


Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.