In a day including a battle between Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale, the best pitching matchup of the slate is in San Francisco as Aaron Ashby takes on Logan Webb.
I'm thrilled for this showdown between two electric pitchers, but I see clear value on one side behind one of the surest bets in sports.
With the Giants winning six of eight and the Brewers losing seven of 10, does Ashby have a chance to take down Webb or will San Francisco keep rolling?
I've got the answer for you, but let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Brewers vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total
- Brewers +1.5 (-160)
- Giants -1.5 (+130)
- Brewers: +133
- Giants: -143
- 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Brewers vs Giants Prediction and Pick
I could dive into the analytics and flesh out detailed arguments on why you should back the Giants, but it all boils down to one factor: Logan Webb is pitching at home.
Dating back to 2020, the Giants are 21-2 when Webb pitches at AT&T Park. He's got a 2.37 ERA at home this season and is on an absolute heater, allowing one or fewer runs in five of his last six starts.
Aaron Ashby is a strong starter in his own right, but he's got a 4.89 ERA on the road and ranks in just the 20th percentile in walk rate. That wart is significant against San Francisco, as the Giants average the third-most walks per game in MLB. The home squad has the third-highest OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks too, so they're built to hammer Ashby.
Webb has a ridiculous 1.13 ERA in his last six starts and should mow down an underwhelming Brewers lineup. When Webb pitches at home, we ride. Sometimes, it's just that easy.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (+130)
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