Betsided

Brewers vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 15 (Bet on Woodruff to Get on Track in Series Finale)

By Reed Wallach

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (53) delivers in the first inning of a baseball
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (53) delivers in the first inning of a baseball / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
facebooktwitterreddit

The Milwaukee Brewers are out to an early lead in the NL Central, but would love to see their pitching staff come together like last season.

That will be the goal on Sunday afternoon when Brandon Woodruff takes the mound. Woodruff, a Cy Young candidate last season has an ERA of 5.97 this season, but can he find success against an average Marlins lineup?

Let's check out the odds for the series finale from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers: -1.5 (+110)
  • Marlins: +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: -160
  • Marlins: +140

Total: 7 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brewers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Woodruff's struggles are well documented, but are they a bit overblown? He has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.62 while striking out similar batters to his typical rate. To me, it appears that the Brewers righty is due for some positive regression. He's allowed 4 home runs in 28.2 innings and his WHIP (walks, hits per inning) is at 1.360, the highest of his career.

I'm going to buy low on Woodruff against a Marlins lineup that is hovering around league average in batting average and slugging percentage. Woodruff's numbers are down in high leverage situations as well. He is stranding less than 60% of runners on base this year after standing more than 70% in all but his rookie year (in which he left 69% of runners on base).

I think this is a great buy low spot on Woodruff, but the same can't be said for Marlins starter. Elieser Hernandez has an ERA 6.37 and a FIP of 5.86. He has been crushed by hitters this season, allowing 8 home runs already, which means some regression may come, but I'm not counting on a complete outing with the fact that he is allowing 10 hits per 9 innings, which is right around his career mark of 8.9.

It's a steep line, but I like the Brewers to leave Miami with a win, but would also look towards the Marlins team total under if you want to play something cheaper.

LEAN: Brewers ML (-160)

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

Home/MLB Odds