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Brewers vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, April 13 (Excellent Pitchers & Bad Offenses Means Under)

By Joe Summers

Corbin Burnes hopes to rebound from a poor first start as the Brewers take on the Orioles today
Corbin Burnes hopes to rebound from a poor first start as the Brewers take on the Orioles today / Quinn Harris/GettyImages
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After splitting the first two games of the series, the 1-4 Baltimore Orioles host the 2-3 Milwaukee Brewers today in a rubber match at 7:05 PM EST.

Milwaukee will entrust the series to ace Corbin Burnes, who struggled in his first outing against the Cubs, but was among the best pitchers in baseball last year.

Baltimore will counter with John Means. The 28-year-old lefty was excellent against Tampa Bay last week, surrendering just one run over four innings. His command was impressive, as he struck out five while walking only one.

Can he build off a solid start following a strong 2021 campaign or will Burnes bounce back to get the Brewers a series win?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us find value in this Brewers vs Orioles matchup:

Brewers vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Brewers -1.5 (-110)
  • Orioles +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers -172
  • Orioles +157

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -105/Under -115)

Brewers vs Orioles Prediction and Pick

Corbin Burnes was the most dominant pitcher in the MLB last season. The Cy Young winner had a league-leading 1.63 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and held his opponent to three or fewer runs in 23 of his 28 starts.

So no, I'm not concerned about the struggles in his first start. Baltimore was one of the worst offenses in the league last season and Burnes should have no problem getting back on track.

But Means is pretty darned good too. He had a 3.62 ERA over 146.2 innings in 2021 thanks in large part to his exquisite control. Means allowed only 26 walks compared to 134 strikeouts, so the Brewers need to make solid contact to put up runs today.

It's unfortunate then, that Milwaukee's offense is so lifeless. They ranked 24th in on-base percentage against left-handed pitchers last year and are averaging just 2.8 runs per game so far this season.

Wow, if only there was some way for us to back both pitchers while fading both offenses. Oh wait, we can totally do that! I'm all over the UNDER 8 runs and think we're getting value based on Burnes' first start. I'd be a bit surprised if the line didn't close at 7.5, so I'd hurry to WynnBET to get your wager in now.

Pick: Under 8.0 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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