Brewers vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 23 (Fade Padres' Winning Streak)
By Joe Summers
Two of the best teams in baseball open a three-game series tonight as the 27-14 San Diego Padres host the 26-15 Milwaukee Brewers at 9:40 PM EST.
Milwaukee saw a three-game losing streak snapped in an 8-2 loss to the Nationals yesterday after Freddy Peralta left the game due to injury. They'll send Adrian Houser to the hill coming off six shutout innings against the Braves. Houser has been notably worse on the road, amassing a 5.27 ERA compared to a 1.99 ERA at home.
The Padres counter with Nick Martinez, who has been the inverse of Houser. Martinez sports a 1.93 road ERA but a 5.23 ERA at home, so these teams hope their respective pitchers can reverse their fortunes today.
San Diego has won four straight after sweeping the Giants. Can they stay hot against another National League powerhouse or will Houser lead the visitors to a road victory?
Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find some value in this Brewers vs Padres matchup:
Brewers vs Padres Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Brewers +1.5 (-215)
- Padres -1.5 (+175)
Moneyline:
- Brewers: -103
- Padres: -107
Total:
- 8.0 (Over +100/Under -120)
Brewers vs Padres Prediction and Pick
The Padres have dominated left-handed pitchers this month but struggled against righties, ranking just 28th in OPS during May. They've won six of seven thanks to a dominant pitching staff that has allowed just 2.5 runs per game in that stretch.
I'm less optimistic they'll find that same success today, though. Nick Martinez ranks in just the ninth percentile in barrel percentage and 24th in expected ERA, so he can be hit hard. Milwaukee leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month and are well-positioned to take advantage of Martinez's command issues.
Martinez is in the 27th percentile in walk rate and the Brewers are a patient lineup, averaging fifth-most walks per game in the National League.
Adrian Houser limited the Padres to a pair of runs in 9.2 innings across two starts last season, so he's familiar with their lineup. But I worry about his propensity to walk batters as well. He does a great job limiting hard contact, but he could be in for a long day if his command issues pop up.
That being said, I think this is a great spot to fade San Diego. Their offense really struggles against right-handed pitchers, especially at home. In their last five as a home favorite, the Padres are 2-3 and averaged just 2.6 runs per contest.
The Brewers, meanwhile, are 9-5 in their last 14 on the road and didn't need to use their best bullpen arms yesterday since the game was quickly out of reach. Since the Padres' pitching staff likely won't shut Milwaukee down, it'll be up to their offense to carry the load. They haven't proven themselves capable of doing that against right-handed pitchers at home, so I'll grab the value on Milwaukee to get revenge after a frustrating loss to the Nationals yesterday.
Pick: Brewers (-103)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.