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Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds (Wheeler's Poor Start Leads to Value on Milwaukee)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 17, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) leaves
Apr 17, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) leaves / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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The Phillies took the first game of their weekend series against the Brewers and now have their ace on the mound for Saturday afternoon. This should be a clear Philly win right? Well, let's find out.

Zack Wheeler is slated to start at home on Saturday, but it has been a slow start for the 2021 NL Cy Young candidate. Can he round into form against a perennial NL Pennant contender in Milwaukee?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before finding a best bet:

Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers: +1.5 (-160)
  • Phillies: -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: +135
  • Phillies: -145

Total: 8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Wheeler's stat line is troubling, but it is early. He has 8 earned runs through 7.2 innings and is struggling to punch batters out. Again, it's early, but maybe last season's career year that included an MLB high 213.2 innings pitched is carrying over into this season.

Now he faces a Brewers club that is struggling to start the year as well. Craig Counsel's team is bottom third in the bigs in on-base percentage thus far and 24th in wRC+, which factors in run scoring chances normalized for stadiums.

I simply can't back Wheeler just yet, especially with the Brewers sending out Adrian Houser, who is one of the more undervalued pitchers to start 2022. Houser has allowed 3 runs in just over 9 innings so far, which is more than fine, but I think he can do better.

Houser is typically a groundball pitcher, averaging 55% GB rate over the past two seasons, but that number is just 35% thus far. With some variance in order on that front against a dangerous power hitting team in the Phillies, I think this is a great price on Houser and the Brew Crew.

Houser may be the better pitcher right now and he's not priced like it. I'll take a stab on them to win on the road and pounce on Wheeler while he is slumping.

LEAN: Brewers +135

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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