Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction and Odds for Thursday, August 4 (Can Woodruff Stay Hot?)

Brandon Woodruff had a 2.10 ERA in July and hopes to stay hot against the Pirates today
Brandon Woodruff had a 2.10 ERA in July and hopes to stay hot against the Pirates today / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

After a stellar July in which he compiled a 3-0 record and 2.10 ERA, Brandon Woodroof hopes to stay hot as his Milwaukee Brewers take on the Pittsburgh Pirates this morning.

Woodruff allowed just three earned runs total over his last three road starts after struggling away from home most of the year.

Zach Thompson gets the call for Pittsburgh in the midst of a troublesome stretch. He surrendered seven earned runs in each of his last two outings and has a 5.51 ERA at home on the year.

Can Thompson turn things around or will Milwaukee pick up another road win behind Woodruff?

To find the value in this Brewers vs Pirates matchup, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Brewers vs Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers -1.5 (-145)
  • Pirates +1.5 (+120)


  • Brewers: -240
  • Pirates: +215


  • Total 8.0 (Over -105/Under -115)

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction and Pick

Brandon Woodruff's box score numbers are catching up to his underlying metrics, and it's time to take advantage. On the season, he's got a 3.55 ERA, but his 2.73 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is an elite mark and he's on a roll after a sensational July.

Over the last three weeks, Milwaukee leads MLB in OPS against right-handed pitchers while the Pirates rank 29th. Thus, the Brewers have a massive advantage, but especially so against Zach Thompson.

In Thompson's last two starts, he's allowed 20 hits and 14 runs. It's been a nightmare for him, and his 5.34 expected ERA indicates we shouldn't expect a bounce-back. Take a look at Thompson's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:

Pretty terrible! Now, look at Woodruff's:

Exceedingly not terrible! Trust Woodruff to continue his hot stretch as Thompson struggles and the Brewers roll.

Pick: Brewers -1.5

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.