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Brewers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Friday, July 29 (Boston's Defense is Costing Their Top Prospect)

By Josh Yourish

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff / John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
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Milwaukee and Boston kick off a three-game weekend series at Fenway Park on Friday night with an established ace on the mound facing a top prospect trying to reach his opponents heights. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers who are 55-44 and in first place in the NL Central. Brayan Bello makes his fourth start for the Red Sox who are now an even .500, 100 games into the season. 

The Red Sox are trying to stay alive in the Wild Card race, get out of last place in the AL East, and convince their GM Chaim Bloom to not give up on this team. Milwaukee has a three-game lead on St. Louis in the division and could use this interleague series to stretch that out. 

You can find odds for this matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Brewers -1.5 (+105)
  • Red Sox +1.5 (-125)

Moneyline

  • Brewers -157
  • Red Sox +147

Total

  • 9 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Brewers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Boston was able to split their four-gamer with Cleveland after the debacle that was their three game series with Toronto. They continue their homestand against Milwaukee, but really look like a team in freefall. 

Brayan Bello is their third ranked prospect according to MLB.com, but has an ERA over 10 in three starts with Boston. Though those numbers might be a bit misleading due to an abnormally high, batting average on balls in play. So far his BABIP is .478, even though he isn’t allowing opponents to barrel the ball. He has a 2.2% barrel rate, and a negative launch angle. He isn’t getting much swing and miss, but if he had a better defense behind him and starts to get more BABIP luck then he could turn his rookie season around. 

Bello also has a fielding independent pitching of 3.87 compared to his 10.50 ERA which nearly falls in line with Woodruff’s 3.73 ERA. 

Bello could someday find that level of success, but he isn’t there yet and Woodruff is. 

Pick: Brewers ML-157

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