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Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds for Monday, September 5 (Smash the Over at Coors Field)

By Josh Yourish

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser (37) is pulled from the game
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser (37) is pulled from the game / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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The Milwaukee Brewers continue to slip farther and farther out of the playoff race, now at 70-63, 8.5 back in the division and 2.5 behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final wild card spot. They will try to turn it around today against the Colorado Rockies who are 57-78 and just dropped a series against the Cincinnati Reds. 

Neither side has a starting pitcher who inspires much confidence on the mound today. Adrian Houser takes the ball for Milwaukee after being reverted to the bullpen for his last three outings, and Ryan Feltner makes his 15th start of the year. 

Brewers vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers -1.5 (+105)
  • Rockies +1.5 (-126)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers: -134
  • Rockies: +114

Total: 

  • 11.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Adrian Houser and Ryan Feltner at Coors Field? There's going to be fireworks today. Houser has a 5.02 ERA, an expected ERA of 4.82, a .424 slugging which is bottom 20% of the league and a bottom 20% strikeout rate, whiff rate and expected batting average.

He gets hit hard 41.2% of the time and gives up fly balls nearly 20% of the time, just under the league average. That is not the recipe for success in the thin Colorado air. 

Ryan Feltner’s numbers are just so much worse than Houser’s he allows fly balls 26.7% of the time his hard hit rate is in the 8th percentile in the league, 44.8%. His expected slugging is .503, that is bottom 2% in baseball. His xERA, xBA, and chase rate are all in the bottom five percent of the league.

He is a disaster in almost every way and the Rockies just need him to eat innings for them to get to the finish line. They are 3-11 in his starts and I can’t imagine that really turning around today. 

I don’t trust either pitcher so let’s go over even with the high total because it’s Coors Field. Plus I like Milwaukee to win today and the odds are not too heavy in their favor even with Feltner’s struggles. 

Pick: Over 11.5 (-106) and Brewers -134

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