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Brewers vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 12 (Minnesota in Smash Spot vs. Milwaukee)

By Ben Heisler

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jason Alexander is striking out just over four batters per nine innings in 2022, and enters with a 4.75 ERA.
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jason Alexander is striking out just over four batters per nine innings in 2022, and enters with a 4.75 ERA. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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The Milwaukee Brewers head north to Minneapolis to begin a two-game series with the Minnesota Twins, as two first place teams collide at Target Field this evening.

There's some potential for rain in the forecast this evening, but once it clears the hitting conditions should be very ideal with the wind blowing out to right-center field at 10-plus mph.

Right-hander Jason Alexander (2-1, 4.75 ERA) makes his seventh start of the season for Milwaukee against fellow righty Josh Winder (4-2, 3.12 ERA). The 25-year old rookie makes his sixth start of the season and his first start at home since May 12.

Here's how the oddsmakers see tonight's matchup playing out over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Brewers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Brewers +1.5 (-180)
  • Twins -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline:

  • Brewers +123
  • Twins -133

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -120 | UNDER +100)

Brewers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

To quote the much more recognized Jason Alexander as George Costanza, "The sea was angry that day, my friends."

Little did he know that nearly 20 years later, he would be foreshadowing his namesake's matchup on the road vs. the hot-hitting Twins.

Minnesota enters today's matchup fourth in the American League in slugging percentage and should tee off against Alexander tonight. The right-hander doesn't miss bats. Like, at all.

Take a look at his MLB Statcast profile and percentile rankings below. They literally cannot be worse when it comes to strikeout percentage and whiff percentage.

Data via MLB Statcast
Data via MLB Statcast /

As for Winder, the overall numbers look decent, but he's also due for a little bit of regression as well. His 3.12 ERA is excellent, but his expected ERA (xERA) and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) are a full run higher, along with an expected FIP (xFIP) coming in very high at 4.70.

Ultimately, I'll back the Twins to get the job done at home, while also taking a chance on the over through the first five innings at -110 odds.

PICK: Twins ML -133 | F5 OVER 5 (-110)

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