British Open Betting Preview: Odds and Predictions
It seems like it was just yesterday that we were gearing up for the Masters at Augusta National, but now here we are at the fourth and final major golf tournament of the year, the Open Championship.
This year's edition of the event will take place at Royal Liverpool. The last time it was hosted here was in 2014 with Rory McIlroy capturing the Claret Jug. 2014 also happens to be the last year that McIlroy has won a major championship. He won both the Open Championship and the PGA Championship that year.
Cameron Smith will enter as the defending champion, out-dueling McIlroy down the stretch at last year's tournament at St. Andrews.
Let's take a look at the odds to win the final major of 2023 and then I'll give you my best bets.
Odds to Win the British Open
British Open Best Bets
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 +165
Death, taxes, and Scottie Scheffler finishing in the top 5. Sure, it's not the sexiest bet in the world, but it's one that has consistently made me money over the past few months.
He has finished in the top 5 in seven (!!) straight tournaments! Starting with the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, he has gone, T5, T2, T3, 3, 3, T4, T3. You can go ahead and toss in another fourth place finish at the Match Play event, a win at The Players, and a T4 finfish at the Arnold Palmer Invitationals, and a win at the Phoenix Open.
This guy hasn't finished worse than T12 since the CJ Cup last October.
Not surprisingly, he leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained at 2.638 per round. That's 0.394 better than the next best golfer, who is Jon Rahm at 2.244. That's a significantly wide margin between first and second.
That margin is even wider when you take out putting. In strokes gained: tee-to-green, Scheffler sits at +2.805 per round, which is 0.766 more than the next best golfer. That's more than three quarters of a stroke per round than the next best guy! Insanity!
He has, for some reason, unable to get a win since the Players in March, so let's just keep betting top five.
Tyrrell Hatton to Win +2500
I have been betting on Tyrrell Hatton a lot lately to no avail, but I'm not ready to give up on him just quite yet. He's third on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. He's even ranked above the betting co-favorite, Rory McIlroy, in that stat.
He's also been flirting with a win in recent events. He was the clubhouse leader at one point on Sunday at the Canadian Open, and he was also atop the leaderboard for a moment at the Scottish Open last week.
His approach game numbers were also extremely promising last week. He gained 1.1 strokes per round with his approach play.
I think 25/1 is more than a fair price on Hatton to win his first major this week.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 +260
I've been monitoring Collin Morikawa to try to figure out the best time to bet on him this season. I've taken a couple shots on him and it hasn't worked out for me yet, but I think now is a great time to try it once again.
Not only is he a former champion of the Open, but he's coming into this tournament off his best finish since the Tournament of Champions. He finished T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, gaining strokes on the field in all four areas while also gaining 1.41 strokes on the field with his approach play.
I'm not saying he's going to win, but as long as his putter doesn't completely melt down and he keeps his approach play as sharp as it was a couple of weeks ago, I think +260 is a great price for a top 10 finish.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change