Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread Feels Like a Trap in NFL Week 13

The Kansas City Chiefs come off their Week 12 bye with a home game against the Denver Broncos. Both teams have been very unpredictable, and this game could easily go either way. On one hand, the Chiefs can run away with the game as the oddsmakers would have you expect with a double-digit spread. On the other hand, the Chiefs could implode as they have done several times this season and fail to cover or even outright lose. 

The spread opened at 9.5 but quickly jumped to 10 points in favor of the home team. While this is a tempting line for some, this game feels like a trap for me. 

Here are the updated odds for this Week 13 game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Updated Odds, Sprea, and Total

Spread:

• Broncos: +10.0 (-110) / Opened at 9.5
• Chiefs: -10.0 (-110) / Opened at 9.5

Moneyline:

• Broncos: +360 / Opened at +355
• Chiefs: -450 / Opened at -440

Total:

• 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110) / Opened 49.5

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

The spread on this game makes little sense to me at 10.0. First off, the Broncos were 2.5-point home underdogs last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver came out and blew the doors off Los Angeles and won by 15 points. With the win, the Broncos moved above .500 to 6-5 and remain in the mix to win the AFC West. This will be the first of two games left between these two teams with the latter coming in Week 18. Denver has lost this game the last 11 times in a row and has their best chance in a while to beat their division rivals. 

This is because the Kansas City Chiefs have been suspect so far this season. The Chiefs have recovered from a slow start and enter Week 13 with a 7-4 overall record. However they are far from the team they were last year despite regaining the lead in the AFC West. The Chiefs are on a three-game winning streak and are looking stronger, but I think this is all part of the trap. 

One major reason I have to doubt the Chiefs against the spread this week is their awful ATS record at home. The Chiefs, 1-5 against the spread at Arrowhead Stadium, are among the worst ATS home teams in the NFL. As a favorite in any game, the Chiefs are 4-7 against the spread this season. So, while Kansas City has started winning games, they still can’t cover at home. So, despite the surge, I'll be betting that the Broncos keep this game close. 

Pick: Denver Broncos +10.0 (-110)