Betsided

Browns vs. Panthers Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Don't Fall for Baker Mayfield Trap)

By Iain MacMillan

Baker Mayfield will make his first start for the Panthers in Week 1 against his former team.
Baker Mayfield will make his first start for the Panthers in Week 1 against his former team. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

No team was in the news more this NFL offseason than the Cleveland Browns.

They traded a boatload of picks to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans, who was facing suspension for the alleged sexual assault of 24 women. In the end, Watson was suspended for 11 games for the 2022 season.

That means that Jacoby Brissett will get the starting gig for Week 1. Ironically, he and the Browns will face-off against the Carolina Panthers, who traded with the Browns for quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield will get the start for the Panthers with vengeance on his mind.

Let's take a look at the odds for the Week 1 interconference showdown, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Browns vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Browns +2.5 (-108)
  • Panthers -2.5 (-112)

Moneyline:

  • Browns +118
  • Panthers -138

Total:

  • 41.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Browns vs. Panthers Betting Trends

  • Panthers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games vs. Browns.
  • Browns are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.
  • Panthers went 0-7 ATS in their final seven games in 2021.
  • Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.

Browns vs. Panthers Prediction and Pick

Let me start off by saying, if you're going to bet on the Panthers because Baker Mayfield is going to be "motivated" to beat his old team, don't.

I was motivated to run 10 miles this morning, turns out motivation didn't help the fact that I'm extremely out of shape. My point is, motivation is all well and good, but at the end of the day it's the NFL and everyone is trying their hardest. It should never be the deciding factor in your bets.

I think the current line is an overreaction to the Deshaun Watson suspension. Jacoby Brissett is a capable quarterback, especially if he has a run game and a defense to rely on, which is exactly what the Browns have.

Cleveland tied the Colts last season for the most yards per carry in the NFL at 5.1. The Browns defense was also second in the NFL in opponent yards per play, boasting one of the top defensive units in the NFL.

Just because Brissett will be under center, doesn't all of a sudden make them a lower-tier team.

The odds for this game are completely mispriced, in my opinion. I'll back Cleveland on the moneyline.

Pick: Browns +118

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Home/NFL Picks