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Bruins vs. Hurricanes Prediction and Odds for Game 5 (Fade the Over Trend)

By Iain MacMillan

The Bruins and Hurricanes will face-off in Game 5 on Tuesday night.
The Bruins and Hurricanes will face-off in Game 5 on Tuesday night. / Adam Glanzman/GettyImages
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The Boston Bruins have won two-straight games to even up their series with the Carolina Hurricanes. They now head back to Carolina for Game 5 on Tuesday night.

It's been a particularly bizarre NHL Playoffs, and the Bruins-Hurricanes series has been no exception. It's tied 2-2, but not a single game has been close. Carolina won the first two games by a combined score of 10-3, and then Boston followed it up by winning the next two games by a combined score of 9-4.

Will Game 5 be close, or is another blowout in store?

Here are the odds via WynnBET for tonight's pivotal matchup.

Bruins vs. Hurricanes Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Bruins +125
  • Hurricanes -145

Puck line:

  • Bruins +1.5 (-225)
  • Hurricanes -1.5 (+185)

Total:

  • 6 (Over +100/Under -120)

Bruins vs. Hurricanes Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 5-0 in the Bruins' last five games.
  • Bruins are 8-4 in their last 12 games.
  • The OVER is 7-0 in the Hurricanes' last seven games.
  • Hurricanes are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • Hurricanes are 5-1 in their last six home games.

Bruins vs. Hurricanes Prediction and Pick

I have bet on the Hurricanes in all four games so far this series, but I no longer have enough faith in them to back them at -145. Sure, they have home ice advantage again, but the analytics show this series has turned into the coin flip that oddsmakers expected.

The two teams rank eighth and ninth in CORSI%. The Bruins outrank the 'Canes in most other advanced analytics like expected goals, but Carolina has performed better in the simple areas like save percentage and shooting percentage.

For that reason, instead of picking a side, I'm going to go with the UNDER 6 at -120. The OVER has been trending for both teams, but it's time to fade it. Amongst the 16 playoff teams, the Bruins rank 11th in high danger scoring chances this postseason with 10.5 per game, and the Hurricanes rank 13th at 9.5 per game.

Despite there being a ton of goals in each of the first four games, there haven't been enough quality scoring chances to expect that to continue. Not to mention both team rank in the top eighth in UNDER percentage this season.

Pick: UNDER 6

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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