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Buccaneers vs. Browns Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 12 (Continue to Fade Tampa Bay Despite Recent Wins)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 13, 2022; Munich, Germany; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) gestures in the
Nov 13, 2022; Munich, Germany; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) gestures in the / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold on to the number one spot in the NFC South, but their lead isn't safe after both the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons won their Week 11 games.

They'll look to string together their third straight win in Week 12 when they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns.

The Browns season is all but over at 3-7, but this will be their final game before Deshaun Watson will make his debut with the team, having served his 11 game suspension.

Let's take a look at the odds for the game, and then I'll break down my best bet.

Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, and Total

Buccaneers vs. Browns Betting Trends

  • Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Buccaneers' last six games
  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their alst five games against the Browns
  • The UNDER is 6-1 in the Buccaneers' last seven road games
  • Buccaneers are 1-8 straight up in last nine games against AFC North opponents
  • Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • The OVER is 7-3 in the Browns' last 10 games
  • Browns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against NFC South opponents

Buccaneers vs. Browns Prediction and Pick

I don't care what we've seen from the Buccaneers in their last two games, I'm still not convinced that they're a good football team and can win with margin. They're 14th in the NFL in net yards per play and their offense is 24th in yards per play, well below the Browns who rank 10th.

It also doesn't help Tampa Bay that the weakness of its defense is its ability to stop the run. The Buccaneers rank 19th in opponent yards per carry, which should fit right in the Browns offensive game plan.

Another area the Buccaneers have struggled in is the red zone. They're 28th in red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on just 46.67% of their trips to their opponents red zone.

I don't think the last two games are an indication that the Bucs are back. I'll continue to fade them until further notice.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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