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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best Bets for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5 (The Bucky Irving Breakout Game?)

It’s an NFC South showdown on primetime this Thursday. Here are three best bets to consider for the matchup. 

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) celebrates during the first half against the Denver Broncos at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) celebrates during the first half against the Denver Broncos at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
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The Saints’ hot start, the Panthers moving on from a No. 1 pick, the Buccaneers’ quest to repeat and the Falcons going on in with Kirk Cousins - from top to bottom, the NFC South is full of intrigue this season. 

At 3-1, the Buccaneers currently sit alone atop the NFC South, but a big divisional clash awaits Tampa Bay this Thursday when they visit the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons coming off a miraculous last-second victory over New Orleans. 

The Falcons are currently 1.5-point favorites in the matchup with a total of 43.5 points. Here are three best bets to consider for the matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best Bets for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5

  • Bucky Irving OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Baker Mayfield UNDER 0.5 Interceptions 
  • Shortest Field Goal Made UNDER 26.5 Yards 

Bucky Irving OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

In Week 3, Tampa Bay was facing a big deficit to the Denver Broncos and was forced to air it out in comeback mode. That led to a lopsided pass/run split, but Irving, a rookie, still out-touched Rachaad White. Sunday’s 33-16 win over Philadelphia was the opposite as the Buccaneers were nursing a big lead. White and Irving each had 10 carries for 49 yards while Irving got the goal-line tote and punched it in for a touchdown. 

Through four games, Irving is starting to take on a bigger workload in the Buccaneers’ backfield as the team’s leading rusher. The rookie is averaging 5.8 yards per carry while White is struggling at just 2.8 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay faces an Atlanta defense that is 25th in the NFL against the run and 26th in run stop win rate, so look for Irving’s volume of work to increase once again as it has over recent weeks.  

Baker Mayfield UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

For starters, Tampa Bay’s success running the football against Atlanta should correlate to less attempts for Baker Mayfield (prop not yet listed), meaning less chances to put the ball in harm's way. 

Atlanta has some ball hawks in its secondary, which is why the Falcons have recorded an interception in three consecutive games. However, when Baker Mayfield is clean in the pocket, he’s one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. Mayfield has thrown an interception in two games this season. In those two games (vs. Denver, at Detroit), Mayfield was sacked a combined 12 times. 

In the two games Mayfield has not thrown a pick (vs. Philadelphia, vs. Washington), he’s been sacked just three times. Despite a talented secondary, Atlanta ranks 31st in pass-rush win rate and dead last in sacks (4) this season. Tampa Bay has the weapons at receiver to match up with Atlanta’s secondary and its offensive line should be able to limit Mayfield’s rushed, errant throws with the Falcons’ struggles to get after the quarterback. 

Shortest Field Goal Made UNDER 26.5 Yards (-110)

While you won’t confuse either of these defenses for the 1985 Bears or the 2000 Ravens, both units have done a great job of bending without breaking so far this season. 

Tampa Bay and Atlanta are each in the top-12 in terms of giving up red zone touchdowns, with both sitting around 47% for the year. On the offensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay has been good at getting touchdowns in the red zone (No. 11 in the NFL), although the Falcons’ inability to punch it in has stood out as they rank 29th in touchdown rate inside their opponents’ 20-yard line. 

The recipe is there for a low-scoring divisional clash between two teams that are familiar with each other. With two defensive-minded head coaches, there looks to be a higher likelihood that they’ll settle for field goals in the red zone and take points where they can get them. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NFL in fourth-down attempts this season, so look for that trend to continue in an early matchup with playoff implications. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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